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We analyse computational efficiency of Metropolis-Hastings algorithms with stochastic AR(1) process proposals. These proposals include, as a subclass, discretized Langevin diffusion (e.g. MALA) and discretized Hamiltonian dynamics (e.g.…

Computation · Statistics 2016-05-23 Richard A. Norton , Colin Fox

The Linear Ballistic Accumulator (Brown & Heathcote, 2008) model is used as a measurement tool to answer questions about applied psychology. The analyses based on this model depend upon the model selected and its estimated parameters.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-03 David Gunawan , Guy E. Hawkins , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Robert Kohn , Scott Brown

Tasks such as record linkage and multi-target tracking, which involve reconstructing the set of objects that underlie some observed data, are particularly challenging for probabilistic inference. Recent work has achieved efficient and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Brian Milch , Stuart Russell

We show how to speed up Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for Bayesian inference in large data problems by data subsampling. SMC sequentially updates a cloud of particles through a sequence of distributions, beginning with a distribution that is…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-25 David Gunawan , Khue-Dung Dang , Matias Quiroz , Robert Kohn , Minh-Ngoc Tran

We consider local Markov chain Monte-Carlo algorithms for sampling from the weighted distribution of independent sets with activity $\l$, where the weight of an independent set $I$ is $\l^{|I|}$. A recent result has established that Gibbs…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Elchanan Mossel , Dror Weitz , Nicholas Wormald

In many inverse problems, model parameters cannot be precisely determined from observational data. Bayesian inference provides a mechanism for capturing the resulting parameter uncertainty, but typically at a high computational cost. This…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-28 Matthew Parno , Tarek Moselhy , Youssef Marzouk

Metropolis-Hastings (MH) is a foundational Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to formulate and analyse MH in terms of categorical probability, using a recent involutive framework for…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-02 Rob Cornish , Andi Q. Wang

We introduce an efficient numerical implementation of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to sample a probability distribution on a manifold (introduced theoretically in Zappa, Holmes-Cerfon, Goodman (2018)), where the manifold is defined by…

Computation · Statistics 2023-08-22 Kerun Xu , Miranda Holmes-Cerfon

This paper faces a central theme in applied statistics and information science, which is the assessment of the stochastic structure of rank-size laws in text analysis. We consider the words in a corpus by ranking them on the basis of their…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-14 Roy Cerqueti , Valerio Ficcadenti , Gurjeet Dhesi , Marcel Ausloos

Federated learning performed by a decentralized networks of agents is becoming increasingly important with the prevalence of embedded software on autonomous devices. Bayesian approaches to learning benefit from offering more information as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Vyacheslav Kungurtsev , Adam Cobb , Tara Javidi , Brian Jalaian

It is widely known that the performance of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can degrade quickly when targeting computationally expensive posterior distributions, such as when the sample size is large. This has motivated the search for MCMC…

Computation · Statistics 2024-12-02 James E. Johndrow , Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith

We present a general framework for defining priors on model structure and sampling from the posterior using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The key idea is that structure priors are defined via a probability tree and that the proposal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Nicos Angelopoulos , James Cussens

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are sampling methods that have become a commonly used tool in statistics, for example to perform Monte Carlo integration. As a consequence of the increase in computational power, many variations of…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-14 F. Din-Houn Lau , Sebastian Krumscheid

The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is a fundamental Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling and inference. With the advent of Big Data, distributed and parallel variants of MCMC methods are attracting increased attention. In this…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Weiming Feng , Thomas P. Hayes , Yitong Yin

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a widely-used technique for generating a dependent sequence of samples from complex distributions. Conventionally, these methods require a source of independent random variates. Most implementations use…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-17 Iain Murray , Lloyd T. Elliott

Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used for Bayesian inference and optimization in statistics, signal processing and machine learning. A well-known class of MC methods are Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In order to foster…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-27 L. Martino , V. Elvira , D. Luengo , J. Corander , F. Louzada

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-27 Edwin Fong , Simon Lyddon , Chris Holmes

We consider the problem of inference in discrete probabilistic models, that is, distributions over subsets of a finite ground set. These encompass a range of well-known models in machine learning, such as determinantal point processes and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-10 Alkis Gotovos , Hamed Hassani , Andreas Krause , Stefanie Jegelka

Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form "exact approximations" to…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-27 Anna Wigren , Riccardo Sven Risuleo , Lawrence Murray , Fredrik Lindsten
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