Related papers: Structural default model with mutual obligations
The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly…
Measuring the corporate default risk is broadly important in economics and finance. Quantitative methods have been developed to predictively assess future corporate default probabilities. However, as a more difficult yet crucial problem,…
In this work we provide a simple setting that connects the structural modelling approach of Gai-Kapadia interbank networks with the mean-field approach to default contagion. To accomplish this we make two key contributions. First, we…
Operational risk is the risk relative to monetary losses caused by failures of bank internal processes due to heterogeneous causes. A dynamical model including both spontaneous generation of losses and generation via interactions between…
Intuitively, the default risk of a single borrower is higher when her or his assets and debt are denominated in different currencies. Additionally, the default dependence of borrowers with assets and debt in different currencies should be…
This paper provides sufficient conditions for the time of bankruptcy (of a company or a state) for being a totally inaccessible stopping time and provides the explicit computation of its compensator in a framework where the flow of market…
Under the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 9, credit losses ought to be recognised timeously and accurately. This requirement belies a certain degree of dynamicity when estimating the constituent parts of a credit loss…
We study insolvency cascades in an interbank system when banks are allowed to insure their loans with credit default swaps (CDS) sold by other banks. We show that, by properly shifting financial exposures from one institution to another, a…
The two main approaches in credit risk are the structural approach pioneered in Merton (1974) and the reduced-form framework proposed in Jarrow & Turnbull (1995) and in Artzner & Delbaen (1995). The goal of this article is to provide a…
In this work we introduce a model of default contagion that combines the approaches of Eisenberg-Noe interbank networks and dynamic mean field interactions. The proposed contagion mechanism provides an endogenous rule for early defaults in…
In this paper we present a Bayesian competing risk proportional hazards model to describe mortgage defaults and prepayments. We develop Bayesian inference for the model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Implementation of the model is…
The interbank market is considered one of the most important channels of contagion. Its network representation, where banks and claims/obligations are represented by nodes and links (respectively), has received a lot of attention in the…
Vessels navigating in confined waters are subject to banking effects, which are hydrodynamic forces and moments arising from pressure differentials between the vessel sides, significantly affecting manoeuvrability and safety. Existing…
In this paper we analyze the resilience of a network of banks to joint price fluctuations of the external assets in which they have shared exposures, and evaluate the worst-case effects of the possible default contagion. Indeed, when the…
We derive a semi-analytic formula for the transition probability of three-dimensional Brownian motion in the positive octant with absorption at the boundaries. Separation of variables in spherical coordinates leads to an eigenvalue problem…
A new methodology for incorporating LGD correlation effects into the Basel II risk weight functions is introduced. This methodology is based on modelling of LGD and default event with a single loss variable. The resulting formulas for…
We develop and test a fast and accurate semi-analytical formula for single-name default swaptions in the context of a shifted square root jump diffusion (SSRJD) default intensity model. The model can be calibrated to the CDS term structure…
Interbank deposits (loans and credits) are quite common in banking system all over the world. Such interbank co-operation is profitable for banks but it can also lead to collective financial failures. In this paper we introduce a new model…
We analyze the practical consequences of the bilateral counterparty risk adjustment. We point out that past literature assumes that, at the moment of the first default, a risk-free closeout amount will be used. We argue that the legal…
In our model, private actors with interbank cash flows similar to, but nore general than (Carmona, Fouque, Sun, 2013) borrow from the outside economy at a certain interest rate, controlled by the central bank, and invest in risky assets.…