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We propose a novel spike and slab prior specification with scaled beta prime marginals for the importance parameters of regression coefficients to allow for general effect selection within the class of structured additive distributional…
We study inference on the common stochastic trends in a non-stationary, $N$-variate time series $y_{t}$, in the possible presence of heavy tails. We propose a novel methodology which does not require any knowledge or estimation of the tail…
In the world of multivariate extremes, estimation of the dependence structure still presents a challenge and an interesting problem. A procedure for the bivariate case is presented that opens the road to a similar way of handling the…
Sharpe Ratio (SR) is a critical parameter in characterizing financial time series as it jointly considers the reward and the volatility of any stock/portfolio through its variance. Deriving online algorithms for optimizing the SR is…
We propose a new Bayesian strategy for adaptation to smoothness in nonparametric models based on heavy tailed series priors. We illustrate it in a variety of settings, showing in particular that the corresponding Bayesian posterior…
We present a new methodology of computing incremental contribution for performance ratios for portfolio like Sharpe, Treynor, Calmar or Sterling ratios. Using Euler's homogeneous function theorem, we are able to decompose these performance…
The steady-state turnover of a trading strategy is of clear interest to practitioners and portfolio managers, as is the steady-state Sharpe ratio. In this article, we show that in a convenient Gaussian process model, the steady-state…
The Cover universal portfolio (UP from now on) has many interesting theoretical and numerical properties and was investigated for a long time. Building on it, we explore what happens when we add this UP to the market as a new synthetic…
Backtests on historical data are the basis for practical evaluations of portfolio selection rules, but their reliability is often limited by reliance on a single sample path. This can lead to high estimation variance. Resampling techniques…
Recent advances in retrieval models based on learned sparse representations generated by transformers have led us to, once again, consider score-at-a-time query evaluation techniques for the top-k retrieval problem. Previous studies…
We study continuous-time portfolio choice with nonlinear payoffs under smooth ambiguity and Bayesian learning. We develop a general framework for dynamic, non-concave asset allocation that accommodates nonlinear payoffs, broad utility…
The unpredictability and volatility of the stock market render it challenging to make a substantial profit using any generalised scheme. Many previous studies tried different techniques to build a machine learning model, which can make a…
In this paper we propose a new approach to estimation of the tail exponent in financial stock markets. We begin the study with the finite sample behavior of the Hill estimator under {\alpha}-stable distributions. Using large Monte Carlo…
Our empirical results show an impressive fit with the pretty complex theoretical Sharpe formula of a trend-following strategy depending on the parameter of the signal, which was derived by by Grebenkov and Serror (2014). That empirical fit…
The estimation of loss distributions for dynamic portfolios requires the simulation of scenarios representing realistic joint dynamics of their components. We propose a novel data-driven approach for simulating realistic, high-dimensional…
I consider unsupervised extensions of the fast stepwise linear regression algorithm \cite{efroymson1960multiple}. These extensions allow one to efficiently identify highly-representative feature variable subsets within a given set of…
A simple example shows that losing all money is compatible with a very high Sharpe ratio (as computed after losing all money). However, the only way that the Sharpe ratio can be high while losing money is that there is a period in which all…
This paper investigates how two important sources of risk -- market tail risk and extreme market volatility risk -- are priced into the cross-section of asset returns across various investment horizons. To identify such risks, we propose a…
Data bias, e.g., popularity impairs the dynamics of two-sided markets within recommender systems. This overshadows the less visible but potentially intriguing long-tail items that could capture user interest. Despite the abundance of…
Real-world data is laden with outlying values. The challenge for machine learning is that the learner typically has no prior knowledge of whether the feedback it receives (losses, gradients, etc.) will be heavy-tailed or not. In this work,…