Related papers: Prediction and Quantification of Individual Athlet…

A methodology that seeks to enhance model prediction performance is presented. The method involves generating multiple auxiliary models that capture relationships between attributes as a function of each other. Such information serves to…

Assessment of job performance, personalized health and psychometric measures are domains where data-driven and ubiquitous computing exhibits the potential of a profound impact in the future. Existing techniques use data extracted from…

We employ the novel theory of heterogeneous extreme value statistics to accurately estimate the ultimate world records for the 100-m running race, for men and for women. For this aim we collected data from 1991 through 2023 from thousands…

The success of autonomous systems will depend upon their ability to safely navigate human-centric environments. This motivates the need for a real-time, probabilistic forecasting algorithm for pedestrians, cyclists, and other agents since…

The impact of predictive algorithms on people's lives and livelihoods has been noted in medicine, criminal justice, finance, hiring and admissions. Most of these algorithms are developed using data and human capital from highly developed…

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

Several performance metrics for quantifying the in-game performances of individual football players have been proposed in recent years. Although the majority of the on-the-ball actions during games constitutes of passes, many of the…

Statistical power is a measure of the replicability of a categorical hypothesis test. Formally, it is the probability of detecting an effect, if there is a true effect present in the population. Hence, optimizing statistical power as a…

Scoring rules are widely used to rank athletes in sports and candidates in elections. Each position in each individual ranking is worth a certain number of points; the total sum of points determines the aggregate ranking. The question is…

Many complex phenomena, from the selection of traits in biological systems to hierarchy formation in social and economic entities, show signs of competition and heterogeneous performance in the temporal evolution of their components, which…

Action prediction focuses on anticipating actions before they happen. Recent works leverage probabilistic approaches to describe future uncertainties and sample future actions. However, these methods cannot easily find all alternative…

The International Swimming Federation (FINA) uses a very simple points system with the aim to rank swimmers across all Olympic events. The points acquired is a function of the ratio of the recorded time and the current world record for that…

A change point detection (CPD) framework assisted by a predictive machine learning model called "Predict and Compare" is introduced and characterised in relation to other state-of-the-art online CPD routines which it outperforms in terms of…

This paper presents a sharp approximation of the density of long runs of a random walk conditioned on its end value or by an average of a functions of its summands as their number tends to infinity. The conditioning event is of moderate or…

Gauging an individual's skill level is crucial, as it inherently shapes their behavior. Quantifying skill, however, is challenging because it is latent to the observed actions. To explore skill understanding in human behavior, we focus on…

Although machine learning (ML)-based performance outcome prediction is an important topic in contemporary sports science, one important issue is the limited understanding of the cross-individual generalizability of ML models in sports…

A multiplicative effects model is introduced for the identification of the factors that are influential to the performance of highly-trained endurance runners. The model extends the established power-law relationship between performance…

The expectation that scientific productivity follows regular patterns over a career underpins many scholarly evaluations. However, recent studies of individual productivity patterns reveal a puzzle: the average number of papers published…

Football forecasting models traditionally rate teams on past match results, that is based on the number of goals scored. Goals, however, involve a high element of chance and thus past results often do not reflect the performances of the…

Given a binary prediction problem, which performance metric should the classifier optimize? We address this question by formalizing the problem of Metric Elicitation. The goal of metric elicitation is to discover the performance metric of a…