Related papers: Maximum a Posteriori Estimation by Search in Proba…
Computing the conditional mode of a distribution, better known as the $\mathit{maximum\ a\ posteriori}$ (MAP) assignment, is a fundamental task in probabilistic inference. However, MAP estimation is generally intractable, and remains hard…
Approximate Bayesian computation methods can be used to evaluate posterior distributions without having to calculate likelihoods. In this paper we discuss and apply an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method based on sequential Monte…
For large model spaces, the potential entrapment of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods with spike-and-slab priors poses significant challenges in posterior computation in regression models. On the other hand, maximum a posteriori…
Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…
In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference. We introduce a method for numerically approximating ABC posteriors using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). A sequential Monte Carlo version of the…
This paper is on Bayesian inference for parametric statistical models that are defined by a stochastic simulator which specifies how data is generated. Exact sampling is then possible but evaluating the likelihood function is typically…
This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…
We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…
Maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation, like all Bayesian methods, depends on prior assumptions. These assumptions are often chosen to promote specific features in the recovered estimate. The form of the chosen prior determines the shape of…
In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian parameter inference for observation driven time series models. Such statistical models appear in a wide variety of applications, including econometrics and applied mathematics. This…
We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian parameter inference in non-linear state-space models with intractable likelihoods. Sequential Monte Carlo with approximate Bayesian computations (SMC-ABC) is one approach to approximate the…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be viewed as an analytic approximation of an intractable likelihood coupled with an elementary simulation step. Such a view, combined with a suitable instrumental prior distribution permits…
ABC (approximate Bayesian computation) is a general approach for dealing with models with an intractable likelihood. In this work, we derive ABC algorithms based on QMC (quasi- Monte Carlo) sequences. We show that the resulting ABC…
We derive the optimal proposal density for Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) (or Population Monte Carlo, PMC). The criterion for optimality is that the SMC/PMC-ABC sampler maximise the effective…
In this paper, we address the challenge of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms within the approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework, which often get trapped in local optima due to their inherent local exploration mechanism. We…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is widely used for Bayesian inference in models of complex systems. Performance, however, is often unsatisfactory in models with many latent variables due to so-called poor mixing, necessitating development…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are increasingly used for inference in situations in which the likelihood function is either computationally costly or intractable to evaluate. Extensions of the basic ABC rejection algorithm…
We present a randomized maximum a posteriori (rMAP) method for generating approximate samples of posteriors in high dimensional Bayesian inverse problems governed by large-scale forward problems. We derive the rMAP approach by: 1) casting…
An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of…
In many domains, we are interested in analyzing the structure of the underlying distribution, e.g., whether one variable is a direct parent of the other. Bayesian model-selection attempts to find the MAP model and use its structure to…