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Related papers: Population viewpoint on Hawkes processes

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Learning the influence structure of multiple time series data is of great interest to many disciplines. This paper studies the problem of recovering the causal structure in network of multivariate linear Hawkes processes. In such processes,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-15 Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang , Kushagra Singhal

Sequences of events in noise-driven excitable systems with slow variables often show serial correlations among their intervals of events. Here, we employ a master equation for general non-renewal processes to calculate the interval and…

Biological Physics · Physics 2011-05-23 Farzad Farkhooi , Eilif Muller , Martin P. Nawrot

A case is made that researchers are interested in studying processes. Often the inferences they are interested in making are about the process and its associated population. On other occasions, a researcher may be interested in making an…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2022-06-20 Charles W. Champ , Andrew V. Sills

We calculate the density and expectation for the number of lineages in a reconstructed tree with $n$ extant species. This is done with conditioning on the age of the tree as well as with assuming a uniform prior for the age of the tree.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-11-05 Tanja Gernhard , Dennis Wong

The Hawkes process has become a standard method for modeling self-exciting event sequences with different event types. A recent work has generalized the Hawkes process to a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process, which enables…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-16 Zhen Han , Yunpu Ma , Yuyi Wang , Stephan Günnemann , Volker Tresp

The number of extant individuals within a lineage, as exemplified by counts of species numbers across genera in a higher taxonomic category, is known to be a highly skewed distribution. Because the sublineages (such as genera in a clade)…

Applications · Statistics 2009-01-09 Panagis Moschopoulos , Max Shpak

As an extension of self-exciting Hawkes process, the multivariate Hawkes process models counting processes of different types of random events with mutual excitement. In this paper, we present a perfect sampling algorithm that can generate…

Applications · Statistics 2020-11-12 Xinyun Chen , Xiuwen Wang

We investigate how the properties of inhomogeneous patterns of activity, appearing in many natural and social phenomena, depend on the temporal resolution used to define individual bursts of activity. To this end, we consider time series of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-03-03 Daniele Notarmuzi , Claudio Castellano , Alessandro Flammini , Dario Mazzilli , Filippo Radicchi

We consider population dynamics on a network of patches, each of which has a the same local dynamics, with different population scales (carrying capacities). It is reasonable to assume that if the patches are coupled by very fast migration…

Biological Physics · Physics 2015-06-04 Michael Khasin , Evgeniy Khain , Leonard M. Sander

Analysing age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration patterns is a crucial task in demography with significant policy relevance. In practice, such analysis is challenging when studying a large number of subpopulations, due to small…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-29 Gregor Zens

We consider a sequence of Hawkes processes whose excitation measures may depend on the generation, and study its scaling limits in the near-unstable limiting regime. The limiting random measures, characterized via a nonlinear convolutional…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-08 Tristan Pace , Gordan Zitkovic

This paper aims to develop practical applications of the model for the highly technical measure-valued populations developed by the authors in \cite{FanEtal20}. We consider the problem of estimation of parameters in the general age and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-30 Jie Yen Fan , Kais Hamza , Fima C. Klebaner , Ziwen Zhong

The growth of a population is often modeled as branching process where each individual at the end of its life is replaced by a certain number of offspring. An example of these branching models is the Bellman-Harris process, where the…

We describe a Bayesian formalism for analyzing individual gravitational-wave events in light of the rest of an observed population. This analysis reveals how the idea of a "population-informed prior" arises naturally from a suitable…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-11-11 Christopher J. Moore , Davide Gerosa

Stochastic processes with multiplicative noise have been studied independently in several different contexts over the past decades. We focus on the regime, found for a generic set of control parameters, in which stochastic processes with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-25 D. Sornette

The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-03 Isabella Deutsch , Gordon J. Ross

We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-06 Maxime Morariu-Patrichi , Mikko S. Pakkanen

The Hawkes process is a widely used model in many areas, such as finance, seismology, neuroscience, epidemiology, and social sciences. Estimation of the Hawkes process from continuous observations of a sample path is relatively…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-23 Feng Chen , Jeffrey Kwan , Tom Stindl

Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Sacha Quayle , Anna Bonnet , Maxime Sangnier

Guided by the relationship between the breadth-first walk of a rooted tree and its sequence of generation sizes, we are able to include immigration in the Lamperti representation of continuous-state branching processes. We provide a…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-28 M. Emilia Caballero , José Luis Pérez Garmendia , Gerónimo Uribe Bravo