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We study the upper tail of the number of arithmetic progressions of a given length in a random subset of {1,...,n}, establishing exponential bounds which are best possible up to constant factors in the exponent. The proof also extends to…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2017-12-12 Lutz Warnke

The aim of this paper is to establish a theory of random variables on domains. Domain theory is a fundamental component of theoretical computer science, providing mathematical models of computational processes. Random variables are the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-08-30 Michael W. Mislove

We study structural properties of trees grown by preferential attachment. In this mechanism, nodes are added sequentially and attached to existing nodes at a rate that is strictly proportional to the degree. We classify nodes by their depth…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-04 E. Ben-Naim , P. L. Krapivsky

We prove that a holomorphic fixed point germ in two complex variables, tangent to the identity, and whose only characteristic direction is non-degenerate, has a domain of attraction on which the map is conjugate to a translation. In the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-01-05 Sara Lapan

We study tail behaviour of the distribution of the area under the positive excursion of a random walk which has negative drift and heavy-tailed increments. We determine the asymptotics for tail probabilities for the area.

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-03 Denis Denisov , Elena Perfilev , Vitali Wachtel

The non-asymptotic tail bounds of random variables play crucial roles in probability, statistics, and machine learning. Despite much success in developing upper bounds on tail probability in literature, the lower bounds on tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Anru R. Zhang , Yuchen Zhou

Let $Y=\sum_{k\ge 1} 1_{A_k}$ be an infinite sum of the indicators of independent events. We investigate a precise (as opposed to logarithmic) first-order asymptotic behavior of the tail probabilities $\mathbb{P}\{Y\ge n\}$ and the point…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Alexander Iksanov , Valeriya Kotelnikova

We consider phase-type scale mixture distributions which correspond to distributions of a product of two independent random variables: a phase-type random variable $Y$ and a nonnegative but otherwise arbitrary random variable $S$ called the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-16 Leonardo Rojas-Nandayapa , Wangyue Xie

Tail risk measures are fully determined by the distribution of the underlying loss beyond its quantile at a certain level, with Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall and Range Value-at-Risk being prime examples. They are induced by law-based…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-07 Tobias Fissler , Fangda Liu , Ruodu Wang , Linxiao Wei

Count data are omnipresent in many applied fields, often with overdispersion. With mixtures of Poisson distributions representing an elegant and appealing modelling strategy, we focus here on how the tail behaviour of the mixing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-29 Samuel Valiquette , Gwladys Toulemonde , Jean Peyhardi , Éric Marchand , Frédéric Mortier

We discuss non-Gaussian random matrices whose elements are random variables with heavy-tailed probability distributions. In probability theory heavy tails of the distributions describe rare but violent events which usually have dominant…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-11-08 Z. Burda , J. Jurkiewicz

Accessibility percolation is a new type of percolation problem inspired by evolutionary biology. To each vertex of a graph a random number is assigned and a path through the graph is called accessible if all numbers along the path are in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-04-04 Stefan Nowak , Joachim Krug

Some new survival distributions are introduced based on a generalised exponential function. This class of distributions includes heavy-tailed generalisations of exponential, Weibull and gamma distributions. Properties of the distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-03 Rose Baker

This paper develops asymptotic approximations of $P(\int_Te^{f(t)}\,dt>b)$ as $b\rightarrow\infty$ for a homogeneous smooth Gaussian random field, $f$, living on a compact $d$-dimensional Jordan measurable set $T$. The integral of an…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-29 Jingchen Liu

Measures of tail dependence between random variables aim to numerically quantify the degree of association between their extreme realizations. Existing tail dependence coefficients (TDCs) are based on an asymptotic analysis of relevant…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-11 Davide Lauria , Svetlozar T. Rachev , A. Alexandre Trindade

Empirical distributions have their in-sample maxima as natural censoring. We look at the "hidden tail", that is, the part of the distribution in excess of the maximum for a sample size of $n$. Using extreme value theory, we examine the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-14 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

We consider random matrix ensembles on the set of Hermitian matrices that are heavy tailed, in particular not all moments exist, and that are invariant under the conjugate action of the unitary group. The latter property entails that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-06 Mario Kieburg , Jiyuan Zhang

The focus of this work is the asymptotic analysis of the tail distribution of Google's PageRank algorithm on large scale-free directed networks. In particular, the main theorem provides the convergence, in the Kantorovich-Rubinstein metric,…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-24 Mariana Olvera-Cravioto

We consider stationary sequences whose marginal tail is subexponential and lies in the Gumbel Maximum domain of attraction. Due to the extremely strong dependence, their extreme values are caused by multiple big values and are clustered in…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Zao-Li Chen

We study partition of networks into basins of attraction based on a steepest ascent search for the node of highest degree. Each node is associated with, or "attracted" to its neighbor of maximal degree, as long as the degree is increasing.…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2008-12-30 Shai Carmi , P. L. Krapivsky , Daniel ben-Avraham