Related papers: Uncertainty Sets For Wind Power Generation
The ability to accurately forecast power generation from renewable sources is nowadays recognised as a fundamental skill to improve the operation of power systems. Despite the general interest of the power community in this topic, it is not…
Accurate production forecasts are essential to continue facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. This paper illustrates how to obtain probabilistic day-ahead forecasts of wind power generation via…
Uncertainty in renewable energy generation has the potential to adversely impact the operation of electric networks. Numerous approaches to manage this impact have been proposed, ranging from stochastic and chance-constrained programming to…
The output of renewable energy fluctuates significantly depending on weather conditions. We develop a unit commitment model to analyze requirements of the forecast output and its error for renewable energies. Our model obtains the time…
In many areas of engineering and sciences, decision rules and control strategies are usually designed based on nominal values of relevant system parameters. To ensure that a control strategy or decision rule will work properly when the…
Accurate and reliable forecasting of renewable energy generation is crucial for the efficient integration of renewable sources into the power grid. In particular, probabilistic forecasts are becoming essential for managing the intrinsic…
Increasing penetration of renewable energy introduces significant uncertainty into power systems. Traditional simulation-based verification methods may not be applicable due to the unknown-but-bounded feature of the uncertainty sets.…
US wind power generation has grown significantly over the last decades, in line with the number and average size of operating turbines. However, wind power density has declined, both measured in terms of wind power output per rotor swept…
In robust optimization, the uncertainty set is used to model all possible outcomes of uncertain parameters. In the classic setting, one assumes that this set is provided by the decision maker based on the data available to her. Only…
Stochastic versions of a classical model for natural ventilation are proposed and investigated to demonstrate the effect of random fluctuations on stability and predictability. In a stochastic context, the well-known deterministic result…
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
This paper builds Wasserstein ambiguity sets for the unknown probability distribution of dynamic random variables leveraging noisy partial-state observations. The constructed ambiguity sets contain the true distribution of the data with…
One of the major sources of uncertainty in predictions of wind farm noise (WFN) reflect parametric and model structure uncertainty. The model structure uncertainty is a systematic uncertainty, which relates to uncertainty about the…
In this paper we investigate how the equilibrium characteristics of conventional power systems may change with an increase in wind penetration. We first derive a differential-algebraic model of a power system network consisting of…
This paper aims to investigate the risk identification problem of power transmission system that is integrated with renewable energy sources. In practice, the fluctuation of power generation from renewable energy sources can lead to severe…
The expected growth in wind energy capacity requires efficient and accurate models for wind farm layout optimization, control, and annual energy predictions. Although analytical wake models are widely used for these applications, several…
Lifecycle assessment of wind turbines is essential to improve their design and to optimum maintenance plans for preventing failures during the design life. A critical element of wind turbines is the composite blade due to uncertain cyclic…
Despite substantial growth in wind energy technology in recent decades, aerodynamic modeling of wind turbines relies on momentum models derived in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, which are well-known to break down under flow regimes…
The paper introduces a new methodology for assessing on-line the prediction risk of short-term wind power forecasts. The first part of this methodology consists in computing confidence intervals with a confidence level defined by the…
The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources introduces significant challenges to power grid stability, primarily due to their inherent variability. A new opportunity for grid operation is the smart integration of electricity…