Related papers: Estimation of Zero Intelligence Models by L1 Data

The Latent Block Model (LBM) is a model-based method to cluster simultaneously the $d$ columns and $n$ rows of a data matrix. Parameter estimation in LBM is a difficult and multifaceted problem. Although various estimation strategies have…

In this work, we are interested in the stability and robustness of the parameter estimation in the Zero-Inflated Bernoulli (ZIBer) model, when the susceptible probability (SP) model is modeled by numerous different binary models: logit,…

This paper introduces new techniques for estimating, identifying and simulating mixed causal-noncausal invertible-noninvertible models. We propose a framework that integrates high-order cumulants, merging both the spectrum and bispectrum…

This paper investigates zeroth-order (ZO) finite-sum composite optimization. Recently, variance reduction techniques have been applied to ZO methods to mitigate the non-vanishing variance of 2-point estimators in constrained/composite…

Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong performance on standardized social science instruments, but their value for product discovery remains unclear. We investigate whether interview-informed generative agents can simulate user…

For multi-source data, blocks of variable information from certain sources are likely missing. Existing methods for handling missing data do not take structures of block-wise missing data into consideration. In this paper, we propose a…

This study conducts a systematic assessment of the capabilities of 12 machine learning models and model variations in detecting economic ideology. As an evaluation benchmark, I use manifesto data spanning six elections in the United Kingdom…

As modern artificial intelligence (AI) systems become more advanced and capable, they can leverage a wide range of tools and models to perform complex tasks. The task of orchestrating these models is increasingly performed by Large Language…

Predicting the performance of LLMs on individual task instances is essential to ensure their reliability in high-stakes applications. To do so, a possibility is to evaluate the considered LLM on a set of task instances and train an assessor…

The advancements in large language models (LLMs) have brought significant progress in NLP tasks. However, if a task cannot be fully described in prompts, the models could fail to carry out the task. In this paper, we propose a simple yet…

In the field of business data analysis, the ability to extract actionable insights from vast and varied datasets is essential for informed decision-making and maintaining a competitive edge. Traditional rule-based systems, while reliable,…

The ability of large language models (LLMs) to perform zero-shot classification makes them viable solutions for data annotation in rapidly evolving domains where quality labeled data is often scarce and costly to obtain. However, the…

Most modern financial markets use a continuous double auction mechanism to store and match orders and facilitate trading. In this paper we develop a microscopic dynamical statistical model for the continuous double auction under the…

While large transformer models excel in predictive performance, their lack of interpretability restricts their usefulness in high-stakes domains. To remedy this, we propose the Generalized Induction-Head Model (GIM), an interpretable model…

Leave-one-out (LOO) prediction provides a principled, data-dependent measure of generalization, yet guarantees in fully transductive settings remain poorly understood beyond specialized models. We introduce Median of Level-Set Aggregation…

An explicit formula is derived for the value of weak information in a discrete time model that works for a wide range of utility functions including the logarithmic and power utility. We assume a complete market with a finite number of…

Recent breakthroughs in large language models (LLMs) have opened the door to in-depth investigation of their potential in tabular data modeling. However, effectively utilizing advanced LLMs in few-shot and even zero-shot scenarios is still…

Uncertainty is a key feature of any machine learning model and is particularly important in neural networks, which tend to be overconfident. This overconfidence is worrying under distribution shifts, where the model performance silently…

Logical reasoning task involves diverse types of complex reasoning over text, based on the form of multiple-choice question answering. Given the context, question and a set of options as the input, previous methods achieve superior…

We propose Model Swarms, a collaborative search algorithm to adapt LLMs via swarm intelligence, the collective behavior guiding individual systems. Specifically, Model Swarms starts with a pool of LLM experts and a utility function. Guided…