Related papers: Ensemble modeling of CMEs using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone…
The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model…
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the major drivers of Space Weather (SWx), so predicting their arrival at Earth is a major aspect of SWx forecasting. Despite increasingly complex models proposed over the past decades, the mean absolute…
The arrival time prediction of Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is an area of active research. Many methods with varying levels of complexity have been developed to predict CME arrival. However, the mean absolute error (MAE) of predictions…
On 7 January 2014 an X1.2 flare and CME with a radial speed $\approx$2500 km s$^{-1}$ was observed from near an active region close to disk center. This led many forecasters to estimate a rapid arrival at Earth ($\approx$36 hours) and…
The drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model which can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the…
The Sun constantly releases radiation and plasma into the heliosphere. Sporadically, the Sun launches solar eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). CMEs carry away a huge amount of mass and magnetic flux with them. An…
The Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) predicts the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) driven shock and the average speed within the sheath at 1 AU. The model is based on the assumption that the ambient solar wind…
The purpose of this project was to assess improvements in CME arrival time forecasts at Earth using the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model driven by data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG)…
In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide-angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to…
Flux-rope-based magnetohydrodynamic modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a promising tool for the prediction of the CME arrival time and magnetic field at Earth. In this work, we introduce a constant-turn flux rope model and use it…
The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HI) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). HI-based methods are…
Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been…
The forecast of the time of arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) to Earth is of critical importance for our high-technology society and for any future manned exploration of the Solar System. As critical as the forecast accuracy is the…
Using a refined setup process, we simulated the propagation of six observed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) with the 2012 Block-Adaptive-Tree-Solarwind-Roe-Upwind-Scheme (BATS-R-US) code from the Sun to the Earth or STEREO A and compared the…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) cause various disturbances of the space environment; therefore, forecasting their arrival time is very important. However, forecasting accuracy is hindered by limited CME observations in interplanetary space.…
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are arguably the most violent eruptions in the Solar System. CMEs can cause severe disturbances in the interplanetary space and even affect human activities in many respects, causing damages to infrastructure…
Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and subsequent geomagnetic impacts of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) at Earth is an important objective for space weather forecasting agencies. Recently, the CME Arrival and Impact working team has…
Accurately predicting the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the Earth based on remote images is of critical significance in the study of space weather. In this paper, we make a statistical study of 21 Earth directed CMEs,…
The Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of coronal mass ejections (CME) at Earth is a key parameter due to the space weather phenomena associated with the CME arrival, such as intense geomagnetic storms. Despite the incremental use of new instrumentation…
Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and arrival speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, a comparison of the predicted arrival times and speeds for each CME based,…