Related papers: Forecasting trends with asset prices
In this paper, We propose a new style panel data factor stochastic volatility model with observable factors and unobservable factors based on the multivariate stochastic volatility model, which is mainly composed of three parts, such as the…
Numerous empirical proofs indicate the adequacy of the time discrete auto-regressive stochastic volatility models introduced by Taylor in the description of the log-returns of financial assets. The pricing and hedging of contingent products…
Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatility of an underlying price process may have correlations that decay slowly under certain market conditions. In this paper, the volatility is modeled as a stationary process with long-range…
In this study we consider the pricing of energy derivatives when the evolution of spot prices is modeled with a normal tempered stable driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Such processes are the generalization of normal inverse Gaussian…
In the context of an increasing popularity of data-driven models to represent dynamical systems, many machine learning-based implementations of the Koopman operator have recently been proposed. However, the vast majority of those works are…
The unscented Kalman filter is an algorithm capable of handling nonlinear scenarios. Uncertainty in process noise covariance may decrease the filter estimation performance or even lead to its divergence. Therefore, it is important to adjust…
This article investigates stochastic epidemic models with partial information and addresses the estimation of current values of not directly observable states. The latter is also called nowcasting and related to the so-called "dark figure"…
We consider a continuous-time linear-quadratic Gaussian control problem with partial observations and costly information acquisition. More precisely, we assume the drift of the state process to be governed by an unobservable…
Machine learning in asset pricing typically predicts expected returns as point estimates, ignoring uncertainty. We develop new methods to construct forecast confidence intervals for expected returns obtained from neural networks. We show…
This study explores the prediction of high-frequency price changes using deep learning models. Although state-of-the-art methods perform well, their complexity impedes the understanding of successful predictions. We found that an…
Quantifying forecast uncertainty is a key aspect of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction and data assimilation systems. Ensemble-based data assimilation systems incorporate state-dependent uncertainty quantification based on…
We prove some efficient inference results concerning estimation of a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck regression model, which is driven by a non-Gaussian stable Levy process and where the output process is observed at high-frequency over a fixed time…
The ensemble Kalman inversion is widely used in practice to estimate unknown parameters from noisy measurement data. Its low computational costs, straightforward implementation, and non-intrusive nature makes the method appealing in various…
We consider a problem of parameter estimation for the state space model described by linear stochastic differential equations. We assume that an unobservable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process drives another observable process by the linear…
Providing a metric of uncertainty alongside a state estimate is often crucial when tracking a dynamical system. Classic state estimators, such as the Kalman filter (KF), provide a time-dependent uncertainty measure from knowledge of the…
We study an optimization-based approach to con- struct a mean-reverting portfolio of assets. Our objectives are threefold: (1) design a portfolio that is well-represented by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with parameters estimated by maximum…
We consider the problem of forecasting multivariate time series by a Seemingly Unrelated Time Series Equations (SUTSE) model. The SUTSE model usually assumes that error variables are correlated. A crucial issue is that the model estimation…
We refer by threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck to a continuous-time threshold autoregressive process. It follows the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics when above or below a fixed level, yet at this level (threshold) its coefficients can be…
The input-parameter-state estimation capabilities of a novel unscented Kalman filter is examined herein on both linear and nonlinear systems. The unknown input is estimated in two stages within each time step. Firstly, the predicted dynamic…
A commonly encountered problem is the tracking of a physical object, like a maneuvering ship, aircraft, land vehicle, spacecraft or animate creature carrying a wireless device. The sensor data is often limited and inaccurate observations of…