Related papers: Systemic trade-risk of critical resources
The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power system with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Real-time retail pricing is characterized by passing on…
This paper introduces forward-looking measures of the network connectedness of fears in the financial system, arising due to the good and bad beliefs of market participants about uncertainty that spreads unequally across a network of banks.…
Complex systems with nonreciprocal interactions are often stratified into layers. Ecosystems are a prime example, where species at one trophic level grow by consuming those at another. Yet the dynamical consequences of such stratified…
The ongoing concern about systemic risk since the outburst of the global financial crisis has highlighted the need for risk measures at the level of sets of interconnected financial components, such as portfolios, institutions or members of…
Critical for policy-making and business operations, the study of global supply chains has been severely hampered by a lack of detailed data. Here we harness international firm-level transaction data covering 20m global firms, and 1 billion…
In this paper we study the effect of network structure between agents and objects on measures for systemic risk. We model the influence of sharing large exogeneous losses to the financial or (re)insuance market by a bipartite graph. Using…
In this paper we consider a mean-field model of interacting diffusions for the monetary reserves in which the reserves are subjected to a self- and cross-exciting shock. This is motivated by the financial acceleration and fire sales…
We examine how monetary shocks spread throughout an economic model characterized by sticky prices and general equilibrium, where the pricing strategies of firms are interlinked, fostering a mutually beneficial relationship. In this dynamic…
We explore the nonlinear dynamics of a macroeconomic model with resource constraints. The dynamics is derived from a production function that considers capital and a generalized form of energy as inputs. Energy, the new variable, is…
Traditional balance-of-payments (BoP) analysis treats national external positions as largely idiosyncratic time series. This misses an essential structural fact: global imbalances are jointly realized on a directed, weighted network of…
Recent studies have found evidence of a negative association between economic complexity and inequality at the country level. Moreover, evidence suggests that sophisticated economies tend to outsource products that are less desirable (e.g.…
Global financial systems are undergoing strategic shifts as geopolitical tensions reshape international trade and payments. The United States (US)-China trade war, sanctions regimes, and rising concerns over the weaponization of financial…
A financial system contains many elements networked by their relationships. Extensive works show that topological structure of the network stores rich information on evolutionary behaviors of the system such as early warning signals of…
In this paper, we examine in an abstract framework, how a tradeoff between efficiency and robustness arises in different dynamic oligopolistic market architectures. We consider a market in which there is a monopolistic resource provider and…
The theory of complex networks and of disordered systems is used to study the stability and dynamical properties of a simple model of material flow networks defined on random graphs. In particular we address instabilities that are…
The energy market, and specifically the renewable sector carries volatility and risks, similar to the financial market. Here, we leverage on a well-established, return-risk approach, commonly used by equity portfolio-managers and apply it…
This paper estimates the causal effect of mineral trade on conflicts in Africa using a Shift-Share IV approach based on an exogenous price-commodity shock. The main result is that an increase in mineral trade significantly increases the…
The current international landscape is turbulent and unstable, with frequent outbreaks of geopolitical conflicts worldwide. Geopolitical risk has emerged as a significant threat to regional and global peace, stability, and economic…
Supply chain resilience analysis aims to identify the critical elements in the supply chain, measure its reliability, and analyze solutions for improving vulnerabilities. While extensive methods like stochastic approaches have been…
Banking system crises are complex events that in a short span of time can inflict extensive damage to banks themselves and to the external economy. The crisis literature has so far identified a number of distinct effects or channels that…