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Principal component analysis (PCA) is arguably the most widely used approach for large-dimensional factor analysis. While it is effective when the factors are sufficiently strong, it can be inconsistent when the factors are weak and/or the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-22 Zhongyuan Lyu , Ming Yuan

This paper proposes a semiparametric joint VaRES framework driven by realized information, mo tivated by the economic mechanisms underlying tail risk generation. Building on the CAViaR quantile recursion, the model introduces a dynamic…

General Economics · Economics 2026-01-06 Sicheng Fu

Multivariate volatility modeling and forecasting are crucial in financial economics. This paper develops a copula-based approach to model and forecast realized volatility matrices. The proposed copula-based time series models can capture…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-21 Wenjing Wang , Minjing Tao

Factor modeling is a powerful statistical technique that permits to capture the common dynamics in a large panel of data with a few latent variables, or factors, thus alleviating the curse of dimensionality. Despite its popularity and…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-03-03 Varlam Kutateladze

Along with the widespread adoption of high-dimensional data, traditional statistical methods face significant challenges in handling problems with high correlation of variables, heavy-tailed distribution, and coexistence of sparse and dense…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-04 Xiaoyang Wei , Yanlin Tang , Xu Guo , Meiling Hao , Yanmei Shi

We propose a fast and flexible method to scale multivariate return volatility predictions up to high-dimensions using a dynamic risk factor model. Our approach increases parsimony via time-varying sparsity on factor loadings and is able to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-11-15 Bruno P. C. Levy , Hedibert F. Lopes

We discuss efficient Bayesian estimation of dynamic covariance matrices in multivariate time series through a factor stochastic volatility model. In particular, we propose two interweaving strategies (Yu and Meng, Journal of Computational…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-07 Gregor Kastner , Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter , Hedibert Freitas Lopes

A multivariate quantile regression model with a factor structure is proposed to study data with many responses of interest. The factor structure is allowed to vary with the quantile levels, which makes our framework more flexible than the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-22 Shih-Kang Chao , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Ming Yuan

This article considers a novel and widely applicable approach to modeling high-dimensional dependent data when a large number of explanatory variables are available and the signal-to-noise ratio is low. We postulate that a $p$-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-09 Zhaoxing Gao , Ruey S. Tsay

We propose a new Conditional BEKK matrix-F (CBF) model for the time-varying realized covariance (RCOV) matrices. This CBF model is capable of capturing heavy-tailed RCOV, which is an important stylized fact but could not be handled…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-10 Jiayuan Zhou , Feiyu Jiang , Ke Zhu , Wai Keung Li

We propose modeling raw functional data as a mixture of a smooth function and a highdimensional factor component. The conventional approach to retrieving the smooth function from the raw data is through various smoothing techniques.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-05 Yuan Gao , Han Lin Shang , Yanrong Yang

In dealing with high-dimensional data, factor models are often used for reducing dimensions and extracting relevant information. The spectrum of covariance matrices from power data exhibits two aspects: 1) bulk, which arises from random…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-22 Xin Shi , Robert Qiu

A dynamic factor model with factor series following a VAR$(p)$ model is shown to have a VARMA$(p,p)$ model representation. Reduced-rank structures are identified for the VAR and VMA components of the resulting VARMA model. It is also shown…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-20 Shankar Bhamidi , Dhruv Patel , Vladas Pipiras

The present paper provides a study of high-dimensional statistical arbitrage that combines factor models with the tools from stochastic control, obtaining closed-form optimal strategies which are both interpretable and computationally…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-25 Jorge Guijarro-Ordonez

Building upon factor decomposition to overcome the curse of dimensionality inherent in multivariate volatility processes, we develop a factor model-based multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) framework. We propose a two-stage estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-24 Benjamin Poignard , Manabu Asai

A prevalent feature of high-dimensional data is the dependence among covariates, and model selection is known to be challenging when covariates are highly correlated. To perform model selection for the high-dimensional Cox proportional…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-04 Pierre Bayle , Jianqing Fan

Fixed effect estimators of nonlinear panel data models suffer from the incidental parameter problem. This leads to two undesirable consequences in applied research: (1) point estimates are subject to large biases, and (2) confidence…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-04-18 Shuowen Chen

Factor analysis is a classical data reduction technique that seeks a potentially lower number of unobserved variables that can account for the correlations among the observed variables. This paper presents an extension of the factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-04 Tsung-I Lin , Pal H. Wu , Geoffrey J. McLachlan , Sharon X. Lee

Income and risk coexist, yet investors are often so focused on chasing high returns that they overlook the potential risks that can lead to high losses. Therefore, risk forecasting and risk control is the cornerstone of investment. To…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-14 Xinyuan Song

Factor models are widely used to reduce dimensionality in modeling high-dimensional data. However, there remains a need for models that can be reliably fit in modest sample sizes and are identifiable, interpretable, and flexible. To address…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-19 Maoran Xu , Steven Winter , Amy H. Herring , David B. Dunson