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We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-06 Maxime Morariu-Patrichi , Mikko S. Pakkanen

Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes form a general class of non-diffusion stochastic models that involve both deterministic trajectories and random jumps at random times. In this paper, we state a new characterization of the jump rate…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-03 Romain Azaïs , Alexandre Genadot

We introduce the minimal maximally predictive models ({\epsilon}-machines) of processes generated by certain hidden semi-Markov models. Their causal states are either hybrid discrete-continuous or continuous random variables and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-05-24 Sarah E. Marzen , James P. Crutchfield

We study gradient drift-diffusion processes on a probability simplex set with finite state Wasserstein metrics, namely finite state Wasserstein common noises. A fact is that the Kolmogorov transition equation of finite reversible Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-20 Wuchen Li

We consider additive functionals of Markov processes in continuous time with general (metric) state spaces. We derive concentration bounds for their exponential moments and moments of finite order. Applications include diffusions,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-18 Frank Redig , Florian Völlering

Our aim is to unify and extend the large deviation upper and lower bounds for the occupation times of a Markov process with $L_2$ semigroups under minimal conditions on the state space and the process trajectories; for example, no strong…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-09-24 Naresh Jain , Nicolai Krylov

Motivated by applications in systems biology, we seek a probabilistic framework based on Markov processes to represent intracellular processes. We review the formal relationships between different stochastic models referred to in the…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2007-08-13 Mukhtar Ullah , Olaf Wolkenhauer

In this paper we propose a semi-Markov modulated model of interest rates. We assume that the switching process is a semi-Markov process with finite state space E and the modulated process is a diffusive process. We derive recursive…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2012-10-12 Guglielmo D'Amico , Raimondo Manca , Giovanni Salvi

In this paper we propose a new method for approximating the nonstationary moment dynamics of one dimensional Markovian birth-death processes. By expanding the transition probabilities of the Markov process in terms of Poisson-Charlier…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-09-23 Stefan Engblom , Jamol Pender

We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-11 Semen A. Trygubenko , David J. Wales

We consider a risk-sensitive continuous-time Markov decision process over a finite time duration. Under the conditions that can be satisfied by unbounded transition and cost rates, we show the existence of an optimal policy, and the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-11-29 Xin Guo , Qiuli Liu , Yi Zhang

We provide quantitative bounds for the long time behavior of a class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes with state space Rd \times E where E is a finite set. The continuous component evolves according to a smooth vector field that…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-12-07 Michel Benaïm , Stéphane Le Borgne , Florent Malrieu , Pierre-André Zitt

In this paper, we consider a subclass of piecewise deterministic Markov processes with a Polish state space that involve a deterministic motion punctuated by random jumps, occurring in a Poisson-like fashion with some state-dependent rate,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Dawid Czapla

In this note we connect the notion of solutions of a martingale problem to the notion of a strongly continuous and locally equi-continuous semigroup on the space of bounded continuous functions equipped with the strict topology. This…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-01 Richard C. Kraaij

The problem of appropriately matching items subject to compatibility constraints arises in a number of important applications. While most of the literature on matching theory focuses on a static setting with a fixed number of items, several…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-04 Céline Comte

We study discretizations of polynomial processes using finite state Markov processes satisfying suitable moment matching conditions. The states of these Markov processes together with their transition probabilities can be interpreted as…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-11 Damir Filipović , Martin Larsson , Sergio Pulido

We introduce the concept of an imprecise Markov semigroup \(\mathbf Q\). It is a tool that allows us to represent ambiguity around both the transition probabilities and the invariant measure of a continuous-time Markov process via a…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-03 Michele Caprio , Mengqi Chen

Continuous-time Markov processes over finite state-spaces are widely used to model dynamical processes in many fields of natural and social science. Here, we introduce an maximum likelihood estimator for constructing such models from data…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-07-01 Robert T. McGibbon , Vijay S. Pande

A comparison theorem for state-dependent regime-switching diffusion processes is established, which enables us to control pathwisely the evolution of the state-dependent switching component simply by Markov chains. Moreover, a sharp…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-08 Jinghai Shao

A piecewise-deterministic Markov process, specified by random jumps and switching semi-flows, as well as the associated Markov chain given by its post-jump locations, are investigated in this paper. The existence of an exponentially…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-07 Dawid Czapla , Katarzyna Horbacz , Hanna Wojewódka-Ściążko