Related papers: Bayesian Detection of Changepoints in Finite-State…
Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…
The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…
We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…
Process monitoring and control requires detection of structural changes in a data stream in real time. This article introduces an efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm designed for learning unknown changepoints in continuous time. The…
Due to the escalating growth of big data sets in recent years, new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parallel computing methods have been developed. These methods partition large data sets by observations into subsets. However, for…
Decision trees are commonly used predictive models due to their flexibility and interpretability. This paper is directed at quantifying the uncertainty of decision tree predictions by employing a Bayesian inference approach. This is…
Models for categorical sequences typically assume exchangeable or first-order dependent sequence elements. These are common assumptions, for example, in models of computer malware traces and protein sequences. Although such simplifying…
This paper addresses the issue of detecting change-points in multivariate time series. The proposed approach differs from existing counterparts by making only weak assumptions on both the change-points structure across series, and the…
This work addresses the problem of segmentation in time series data with respect to a statistical parameter of interest in Bayesian models. It is common to assume that the parameters are distinct within each segment. As such, many Bayesian…
We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain.…
We propose a novel Bayesian methodology for analyzing nonstationary time series that exhibit oscillatory behaviour. We approximate the time series using a piecewise oscillatory model with unknown periodicities, where our goal is to estimate…
This paper explores the versatility and depth of Bayesian modeling by presenting a comprehensive range of applications and methods, combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques and variational approximations. Covering topics such as…
When analysing multiple time series that may be subject to changepoints, it is sometimes possible to specify a priori, by means of a graph, which pairs of time series are likely to be impacted by simultaneous changepoints. This article…
In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…
Finite element model updating is challenging because 1) the problem is oftentimes underdetermined while the measurements are limited and/or incomplete; 2) many combinations of parameters may yield responses that are similar with respect to…
Multivariate data sources with components of different information value seem to appear frequently in practice. Models in which the components change their homogeneity at different times are of significant importance. The fact whether any…
Bayesian phylogenetic inference is currently done via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with simple proposal mechanisms. This hinders exploration efficiency and often requires long runs to deliver accurate posterior estimates. In this paper,…
Bayesian change-point detection, together with latent variable models, allows to perform segmentation over high-dimensional time-series. We assume that change-points lie on a lower-dimensional manifold where we aim to infer subsets of…
The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…