Related papers: Extending the Latent Multinomial Model with Comple…

In supervised learning, we fit a single statistical model to a given data set, assuming that the data is associated with a singular task, which yields well-tuned models for specific use, but does not adapt well to new contexts. By contrast,…

In clinical trials, studies often present longitudinal data or clustered data. These studies are commonly analyzed using linear mixed models (LMMs), usually considering Gaussian assumptions for random effect and error terms. Recently,…

Deep learning (DL) methods have outperformed parametric models such as historical average, ARIMA and variants in predicting traffic variables into short and near-short future, that are critical for traffic management. Specifically,…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are foundational algorithms for Bayesian inference and probabilistic modeling. However, most MCMC algorithms are inherently sequential and their time complexity scales linearly with the sequence…

This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…

We develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that exploits a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity to efficiently generate samples from an unnormalized target distribution. Broadly, the method rewrites the Multilevel…

Sequential scaling is a prominent inference-time scaling paradigm, yet its performance improvements are typically modest and not well understood, largely due to the prevalence of heuristic, non-principled approaches that obscure clear…

Multivariate probit models (MPM) have the appealing feature of capturing some of the dependence structure between the components of multidimensional binary responses. The key for the dependence modelling is the covariance matrix of an…

The Linear Ballistic Accumulator (Brown & Heathcote, 2008) model is used as a measurement tool to answer questions about applied psychology. The analyses based on this model depend upon the model selected and its estimated parameters.…

We propose and analyze a model-based bootstrap for transition kernels in finite controlled Markov chains (CMCs) with possibly nonstationary or history-dependent control policies, a setting that arises naturally in offline reinforcement…

In this paper, selection of an active sensor subset for tracking a discrete time, finite state Markov chain having an unknown transition probability matrix (TPM) is considered. A total of N sensors are available for making observations of…

Markov state models (MSMs) have been successful in computing metastable states, slow relaxation timescales and associated structural changes, and stationary or kinetic experimental observables of complex molecules from large amounts of…

A novel computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme for latent Gaussian models (LGMs) is proposed in this paper. The sampling scheme is a two block Gibbs sampling scheme designed to exploit the model structure of LGMs.…

This paper develops a framework for quantile regression in binary longitudinal data settings. A novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is designed to fit the model and its computational efficiency is demonstrated in a simulation…

Statistical inference in evolutionary models with site-dependence is a long-standing challenge in phylogenetics and computational biology. We consider the problem of approximating marginal sequence likelihoods under dependent-site models of…

Sequence analysis is being more and more widely used for the analysis of social sequences and other multivariate categorical time series data. However, it is often complex to describe, visualize, and compare large sequence data, especially…

Spurred in part by the ever-growing number of sensors and web-based methods of collecting data, the use of Intensive Longitudinal Data (ILD) is becoming more common in the social and behavioural sciences. The ILD collected in this field are…

We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that dramatically accelerates the simulation of quantum many-body systems, a grand challenge in computational science. State-of-the-art methods for these problems are severely limited…

Large-scale biobanks are being collected around the world in efforts to better understand human health and risk factors for disease. They often survey hundreds of thousands of individuals, combining questionnaires with clinical, genetic,…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used in machine learning. One of the major problems with MCMC is the question of how to design chains that mix fast over the whole state space; in particular, how to select the parameters…