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Bayesian optimization has attracted huge attention from diverse research areas in science and engineering, since it is capable of efficiently finding a global optimum of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box function. In general, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Jungtaek Kim

In model development, model calibration and validation play complementary roles toward learning reliable models. In this article, we expand the Bayesian Validation Metric framework to a general calibration and validation framework by…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 Tony Tohme , Kevin Vanslette , Kamal Youcef-Toumi

Integrative analyses based on statistically relevant associations between genomics and a wealth of intermediary phenotypes (such as imaging) provide vital insights into their clinical relevance in terms of the disease mechanisms. Estimates…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-16 Snigdha Panigrahi , Shariq Mohammed , Arvind Rao , Veerabhadran Baladandayuthapani

Given a supervised machine learning problem where the training set has been subject to a known sampling bias, how can a model be trained to fit the original dataset? We achieve this through the Bayesian inference framework by altering the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-16 Max Sklar

High-dimensional variable selection, with many more covariates than observations, is widely documented in standard regression models, but there are still few tools to address it in non-linear mixed-effects models where data are collected…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-08 Marion Naveau , Guillaume Kon Kam King , Renaud Rincent , Laure Sansonnet , Maud Delattre

Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-29 Yuling Yao , Gregor Pirš , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

In this article, we propose a novel Bayesian multiple testing formulation for model and variable selection in inverse setups, judiciously embedding the idea of inverse reference distributions proposed by Bhattacharya (2013) in a mixture…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-16 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

The quantile varying coefficient (VC) model can flexibly capture dynamical patterns of regression coefficients. In addition, due to the quantile check loss function, it is robust against outliers and heavy-tailed distributions of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-11 Fei Zhou , Jie Ren , Shuangge Ma , Cen Wu

Survey sampling plays an important role in the efficient allocation and management of resources. The essence of survey sampling lies in acquiring a sample of data points from a population and subsequently using this sample to estimate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-29 Jonne Pohjankukka , Sakari Tuominen , Jukka Heikkonen

Invariant prediction [Peters et al., 2016] analyzes feature/outcome data from multiple environments to identify invariant features - those with a stable predictive relationship to the outcome. Such features support generalization to new…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-10 Luhuan Wu , Mingzhang Yin , Yixin Wang , John P. Cunningham , David M. Blei

A vast amount of ecological knowledge generated recently has hinged upon the ability of model selection methods to discriminate among various ecological hypotheses. The last decade has seen the rise of Bayesian hierarchical models in…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-08 Soumen Dey , Mohan Delampady , Arjun M. Gopalaswamy

Collected data, which is used for analysis or prediction tasks, often have a hierarchical structure, for example, data from various people performing the same task. Modeling the data's structure can improve the reliability of the derived…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-12 Dennis Becker

The construction of decision-theoretic Bayesian designs for realistically-complex nonlinear models is computationally challenging, as it requires the optimization of analytically intractable expected utility functions over high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-01 Antony Overstall , David Woods

We propose a cautious Bayesian variable selection routine by investigating the sensitivity of a hierarchical model, where the regression coefficients are specified by spike and slab priors. We exploit the use of latent variables to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes , Jochen Einbeck

For many years it was routine to use equal model prior probabilities in Bayesian model uncertainty analysis. At least twenty years ago it became clear that this was problematic, leading to support of much too large models in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-23 James Berger , Gonzalo García-Donato , Elías Moreno , Luis Pericchi

Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…

Applications · Statistics 2011-04-15 Lizhen Xu , Radu V. Craiu , Lei Sun

Univariate and multivariate general linear regression models, subject to linear inequality constraints, arise in many scientific applications. The linear inequality restrictions on model parameters are often available from phenomenological…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-07 Solmaz Seifollahi , Kaniav Kamary , Hossein Bevrani

The design of an experiment can be always be considered at least implicitly Bayesian, with prior knowledge used informally to aid decisions such as the variables to be studied and the choice of a plausible relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-03 David C. Woods , Antony M. Overstall , Maria Adamou , Timothy W. Waite

The effort to understand network systems in increasing detail has resulted in a diversity of methods designed to extract their large-scale structure from data. Unfortunately, many of these methods yield diverging descriptions of the same…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-03-27 Tiago P. Peixoto

We consider the problem of variable selection in linear models when $p$, the number of potential regressors, may exceed (and perhaps substantially) the sample size $n$ (which is possibly small).

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