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We analyze in a closed form the learning dynamics of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for a single-layer neural network classifying a high-dimensional Gaussian mixture where each cluster is assigned one of two labels. This problem provides…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-28 Francesca Mignacco , Florent Krzakala , Pierfrancesco Urbani , Lenka Zdeborová

Gradient matching with Gaussian processes is a promising tool for learning parameters of ordinary differential equations (ODE's). The essence of gradient matching is to model the prior over state variables as a Gaussian process which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-25 Nico S. Gorbach , Stefan Bauer , Joachim M. Buhmann

In this paper we first describe the class of log-Gaussian Cox processes (LGCPs) as models for spatial and spatio-temporal point process data. We discuss inference, with a particular focus on the computational challenges of likelihood-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-24 Peter J. Diggle , Paula Moraga , Barry Rowlingson , Benjamin M. Taylor

Training a diffusion model approximates a map from a data distribution $\rho$ to the optimal score function $s_t$ for that distribution. Can we differentiate this map? If we could, then we could predict how the score, and ultimately the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Christopher Scarvelis , Justin Solomon

Recent years have seen a huge development in spatial modelling and prediction methodology, driven by the increased availability of remote-sensing data and the reduced cost of distributed-processing technology. It is well known that…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-18 Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Jonathan Rougier

In this paper we present a novel inference methodology to perform Bayesian inference for spatiotemporal Cox processes where the intensity function depends on a multivariate Gaussian process. Dynamic Gaussian processes are introduced to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-12 Flávio B. Gonçalves , Dani Gamerman

Extreme environmental events frequently exhibit spatial and temporal dependence. These data are often modeled using max stable processes (MSPs). MSPs are computationally prohibitive to fit for as few as a dozen observations, with supposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-02 Emily C. Hector , Brian J. Reich

This paper proposes a novel graphical model, termed the spatial dependence graph model, which captures the global dependence structure of different events that occur randomly in space. In the spatial dependence graph model, the edge set is…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-26 Matthias Eckardt

We consider the accuracy of an approximate posterior distribution in nonparametric regression problems by combining posterior distributions computed on subsets of the data defined by the locations of the independent variables. We show that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-29 Botond Szabo , Amine Hadji , Aad van der Vaart

We investigate the use of derivative information for Batch Active Learning in Gaussian Process regression models. The proposed approach employs the predictive covariance matrix for selection of data batches to exploit full correlation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-06 Hon Sum Alec Yu , Christoph Zimmer , Duy Nguyen-Tuong

The adjoint sensitivity method scalably computes gradients of solutions to ordinary differential equations. We generalize this method to stochastic differential equations, allowing time-efficient and constant-memory computation of gradients…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Xuechen Li , Ting-Kam Leonard Wong , Ricky T. Q. Chen , David Duvenaud

In many environmental applications involving spatially-referenced data, limitations on the number and locations of observations motivate the need for practical and efficient models for spatial interpolation, or kriging. A key component of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-15 Mark D. Risser , Catherine A. Calder

We consider modeling of angular or directional data viewed as a linear variable wrapped onto a unit circle. In particular, we focus on the spatio-temporal context, motivated by a collection of wave directions obtained as computer model…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-18 Gianluca Mastrantonio , Giovanna Jona Lasinio , Alan E. Gelfand

We introduce local expectation gradients which is a general purpose stochastic variational inference algorithm for constructing stochastic gradients through sampling from the variational distribution. This algorithm divides the problem of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-06 Michalis K. Titsias

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-29 Alexander Terenin

1.) Spatio-temporal datasets that are difficult to analyze are common in ecological surveys. There are software packages available to analyze these datasets, but many of them require advanced coding skills. There is a growing need for easy…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-07 Ethan Lawler , Chris Field , Joanna Mills Flemming

This thesis focuses on data that has complex spatio-temporal structure and on probabilistic graphical models that learn the structure in an interpretable and scalable manner. We target two research areas of interest: Gaussian graphical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Yu Wang

In climate change study, the infrared spectral signatures of climate change have recently been conceptually adopted, and widely applied to identifying and attributing atmospheric composition change. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model…

Applications · Statistics 2016-04-04 Zhen Zhang , Chae Young Lim , Tapabrata Maiti , Seiji Kato

Multivariate geostatistics is based on modelling all covariances between all possible combinations of two or more variables at any sets of locations in a continuously indexed domain. Multivariate spatial covariance models need to be built…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-10 Noel Cressie , Andrew Zammit-Mangion

We model the spatial dynamics of a forest stand by using a special class of spatio-temporal point processes, the sequential spatial point process, where the spatial dimension is parameterized and the time component is atomic. The sequential…