Related papers: Precipitation extremes under climate change
The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall…
There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However,…
Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate…
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…
Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not…
Extreme climate events, e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves, and freezes, are becoming more frequent and intense with severe global socio-economic impacts. Growing populations and economic activity leads to increased exposure to these…
Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are crucial components of the hydrological cycle and often produce flash floods. Given their impact, it is crucial to understand how they will change under a warming climate. This study uses a satellite-…
In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…
Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…
Extreme near-surface moist heat and severe convective storms are among the leading causes of weather-related damages worldwide. Here, we show that episodes of extreme moist heat and severe convection frequently co-occur across midlatitude…
Understanding extreme ocean environments and their interaction with fixed and floating structures is critical for the design of offshore and coastal facilities. The joint effect of various ocean variables on extreme responses of offshore…
Extreme precipitation is projected to become more frequent and more intense due to climate change and associated thermodynamical effects, but the local response of atmospheric circulation under future climate scenarios remains uncertain due…
Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…
Understanding the dynamics of climate extreme is important in its prediction and modeling. In this study, linear trends in percentile, threshold, absolute, and duration based temperature and precipitation extremes indicator were obtained…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
Using lightning strikes as an example, two possible schemes are discussed for the attribution of changes in event frequency to climate change, and estimating the cost associated with them. The schemes determine the fraction of events that…
The purpose of this paper is to illustrate new techniques for computing multiday extreme precipitation taken from recent theoretical advancements in extreme value theory in the framework of dynamical systems, using historical precipitation…