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A $p$-jump process is a piecewise deterministic Markov process with jumps by a factor of $p$. We prove a limit theorem for such processes on the unit interval. Via duality with respect to probability generating functions, we deduce limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-02 F. Hermann , P. Pfaffelhuber

Poisson-like behavior for event count data is ubiquitous in nature. At the same time, differencing of such counts arises in the course of data processing in a variety of areas of application. As a result, the Skellam distribution -- defined…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-04-04 H. L. Gan , Eric D. Kolaczyk

The often debated issue of `ratios of small numbers of events' is approached from a probabilistic perspective, making a clear distinction between the predictive problem (forecasting numbers of events we might count under well stated…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-09 Giulio D'Agostini

We present here a simple method for computing the large deviation of long time average for stochastic jump processes. We show that the computation of the rate function can be reduced to that of a partial differential equation governing the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-04-22 Bahram Houchmandzadeh

We survey the 'generalized fractional Poisson process' (GFPP). The GFPP is a renewal process generalizing Laskin's fractional Poisson counting process and was first introduced by Cahoy and Polito. The GFPP contains two index parameters with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-07-02 Thomas M. Michelitsch , Alejandro P. Riascos

We analyze the Gaussian approximation as a method to obtain the first and second moments of a stochastic process described by a master equation. We justify the use of this approximation with ideas coming from van Kampen's expansion approach…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-18 Luis F. Lafuerza , Raul Toral

We consider the intensity-based approach for the modeling of default times of one or more companies. In this approach the default times are defined as the jump times of a Cox process, which is a Poisson process conditional on the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Vincent Leijdekker , Peter Spreij

Fractional calculus allows one to generalize the linear, one-dimensional, diffusion equation by replacing either the first time derivative or the second space derivative by a derivative of fractional order. The fundamental solutions of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Francesco Mainardi , Paolo Paradisi , Rudolf Gorenflo

In this paper, we study the Galton-Watson process in the random environment for the particular case when the number of the offsprings in each generation has the fractional linear generation function with random parameters. In this case, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-01 Dan Han , Stanislav Molchanov , Yanjmaa Jutmaan

First passage phenomena arise across physics, biology, and finance when stochastic processes first reach a threshold, triggering downstream events. Examples include the irreversible exit from a domain, a biochemical reaction, a financial…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-06 Maria R. D'Orsogna , Alan E. Lindsay , Thomas Hillen

Random fields are useful mathematical tools for representing natural phenomena with complex dependence structures in space and/or time. In particular, the Gaussian random field is commonly used due to its attractive properties and…

We consider a Gaussian Volterra process with compound Poisson jumps and derive its prediction law.

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-10 Hamidreza Maleki Almani , Foad Shokrollahi , Tommi Sottinen

A particle entering a scattering and absorbing medium executes a random walk through a sequence of scattering events. The particle ultimately achieves first-passage, leaving the medium or it is absorbed. The Kubelka-Munk model describes a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-03-12 Claude Zeller , Robert Cordery

Aggregation patterns are often visually detected in sets of location data. These clusters may be the result of interesting dynamics or the effect of pure randomness. We build an asymptotically Gaussian test for the hypothesis of randomness…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-06-09 Gabriel Lang , Eric Marcon

We study the first-passage time (FPT) problem for widespread recurrent processes in confined though large systems and present a comprehensive framework for characterizing the FPT distribution over many time scales. We find that the FPT…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-03-21 Talia Baravi , David A. Kessler , Eli Barkai

A model of Poissonian observation having a jump (change-point) in the intensity function is considered. Two cases are studied. The first one corresponds to the situation when the jump size converges to a non-zero limit, while in the second…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-25 Serguei Dachian , Lin Yang

The (conditional or unconditional) distribution of the continuous scan statistic in a one-dimensional Poisson process may be approximated by that of a discrete analogue via time discretization (to be referred to as the discrete…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-09 Yi-Ching Yao , Daniel Wei-Chung Miao , Xenos Chang-Shuo Lin

In this paper we consider the relation between random sums and compositions of different processes. In particular, for independent Poisson processes $N_\alpha(t)$, $N_\beta(t)$, $t>0$, we show that $N_\alpha(N_\beta(t))…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-28 Enzo Orsingher , Federico Polito

We have known that most sequences in $\mathcal{M}=\{1,2,\dots, M\}$ with length $n$ will miss $Me^{-\lambda}$ of the total numbers of $\{1,2,\dots,M\}$ as the ratio $n/M$ tends to $\lambda$. Now we consider a more general case where the…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Cristian Cobeli , Alexandru Zaharescu

There are two main quantities involved in the deviation of a stochastic process from a Poisson process: the squared coefficient of variation of the time intervals between adjacent events and the Fano factor of the number of reaction events.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-11-02 Seong Jun Park , M. Y. Choi