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The Minimum Description Length principle for online sequence estimation/prediction in a proper learning setup is studied. If the underlying model class is discrete, then the total expected square loss is a particularly interesting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-07-16 Jan Poland , Marcus Hutter

We propose a new approach for deriving probabilistic inequalities based on bounding likelihood ratios. We demonstrate that this approach is more general and powerful than the classical method frequently used for deriving concentration…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-11-21 Xinjia Chen

Tight bounds for several symmetric divergence measures are introduced, given in terms of the total variation distance. Each of these bounds is attained by a pair of 2 or 3-element probability distributions. An application of these bounds…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-15 Igal Sason

This paper gives a review of concentration inequalities which are widely employed in non-asymptotical analyses of mathematical statistics in a wide range of settings, from distribution-free to distribution-dependent, from sub-Gaussian to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-24 Huiming Zhang , Song Xi Chen

Given $n$ samples from a population of individuals belonging to different types with unknown proportions, how do we estimate the probability of discovering a new type at the $(n+1)$-th draw? This is a classical problem in statistics,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-27 Fadhel Ayed , Marco Battiston , Federico Camerlenghi , Stefano Favaro

Concentration inequalities for the sample mean, like those due to Bernstein, Hoeffding, and Bentkus, are valid for any sample size but overly conservative, yielding confidence intervals that are unnecessarily wide. The central limit theorem…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Morgane Austern , Lester Mackey

The problem of missing mass in statistical inference (posed by McAllester and Ortiz, NIPS'02; most recently revisited by Changa and Thangaraj, ISIT'2019) seeks to estimate the weight of symbols that have not been sampled yet from a source.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-15 Maciej Skorski

A central problem in Binary Hypothesis Testing (BHT) is to determine the optimal tradeoff between the Type I error (referred to as false alarm) and Type II (referred to as miss) error. In this context, the exponential rate of convergence of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-11-29 Sebastian Espinosa , Jorge F. Silva , Pablo Piantanida

In this paper we obtain a Bernstein type inequality for a class of weakly dependent and bounded random variables. The proofs lead to a moderate deviations principle for sums of bounded random variables with exponential decay of the strong…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-23 Florence Merlevède , Magda Peligrad , Emmanuel Rio

Missing values arise in most real-world data sets due to the aggregation of multiple sources and intrinsically missing information (sensor failure, unanswered questions in surveys...). In fact, the very nature of missing values usually…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-04 Alexis Ayme , Claire Boyer , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Erwan Scornet

We derive explicit Bernstein-type and Bennett-type concentration inequalities for matrix-valued martingale processes with unbounded observations from the Hermitian space $\mathbb{H}(d)$. Specifically, we assume that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-21 Alexey Kroshnin , Alexandra Suvorikova

In this note, we improve some concentration inequalities for martingales with bounded increments. These results recover the missing factor in Freedman-style inequalities and are near optimal. We also provide minor refinements of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-31 Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

We present novel bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These are nearly optimal in various precise senses, including a kind of instance-optimality. Our data-dependent convergence guarantees…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-14 Aryeh Kontorovich , Amichai Painsky

When dealing with imbalanced classification data, reweighting the loss function is a standard procedure allowing to equilibrate between the true positive and true negative rates within the risk measure. Despite significant theoretical work…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-17 Anass Aghbalou , François Portier , Anne Sabourin

We consider the Minimum Description Length principle for online sequence prediction. If the underlying model class is discrete, then the total expected square loss is a particularly interesting performance measure: (a) this quantity is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-07-16 Jan Poland , Marcus Hutter

We derive tight and computable bounds on the bias of statistical estimators, or more generally of quantities of interest, when evaluated on a baseline model P rather than on the typically unknown true model Q. Our proposed method combines…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-07-04 Konstantinos Gourgoulias , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Luc Rey-Bellet , Jie Wang

Uniform deviation bounds limit the difference between a model's expected loss and its loss on an empirical sample uniformly for all models in a learning problem. As such, they are a critical component to empirical risk minimization. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-28 Olivier Bachem , Mario Lucic , S. Hamed Hassani , Andreas Krause

We give a concentration inequality based on the premise that random variables take values within a particular region. The concentration inequality guarantees that, for any sequence of correlated random variables, the difference between the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-21 Go Kato

The martingale method is used to establish concentration inequalities for a class of dependent random sequences on a countable state space, with the constants in the inequalities expressed in terms of certain mixing coefficients. Along the…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-01-22 Leonid , Kontorovich , Kavita Ramanan

Li and Hu recently established variance-type O(1/n) bounds for the sample mean of independent random vectors under sublinear expectations. We extend their results to the exponential concentration regime. For bounded, independent R^d-valued…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-26 Nahom Seyoum