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Related papers: Is It Possible to Predict Strong Earthquakes?

200 papers

Two novel methods, one that is experimental and the other comprising a pair of theoretical types (one component that is mathematically rigorous and the other that is of frequency domain computational type), are being used in concert to…

General Physics · Physics 2014-02-14 Randall D. Peters , Michael A. Phillips

We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-07-23 James R Holliday , William R Graves , John B Rundle , Donald L Turcotte

In this work, it is demonstrated that the Earth's preseismic electric field, which is registered by a pair of electrodes in contact to the ground surface at certain distance from the epicentral area, corresponds to the gradient of the total…

Geophysics · Physics 2008-06-03 C. Thanassoulas

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-01-29 James R. Holliday , Kazuyoshi Z. Nanjo , Kristy F. Tiampo , John B. Rundle , Donald L. Turcotte

We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-28 P. Proskura , A. Zaytsev , I. Braslavsky , E. Egorov , E. Burnaev

A characteristic change of seismicity has been recently uncovered when the precursory Seismic Electric Signals activities initiate before an earthquake occurrence. In particular, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-03-27 Panayiotis A. Varotsos , Nicholas V. Sarlis , Efthimios S. Skordas

Early earthquake warning is a rapidly developing capability that has significant ramifications for many fields, including astronomical observatories. In this work, we describe the susceptibility of astronomical facilities to seismic events,…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-23 Michael Coughlin , Christopher Stubbs , Sergio Barrientos , Chuck Claver , Jan Harms , Christopher Smith , Michael Warner

Earthquake signals are non-stationary in nature and thus in real-time, it is difficult to identify and classify events based on classical approaches like peak ground displacement, peak ground velocity. Even the popular algorithm of STA/LTA…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-19 Tonumoy Mukherjee , Chandrani Singh , Prabir Kumar Biswas

The MyShake project aims to build a global smartphone seismic network to facilitate large-scale earthquake early warning and other applications by leveraging the power of crowdsourcing. The MyShake mobile application first detects…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-06-09 Qingkai Kong , Robert Martin-Short , Richard M. Allen

Earthquake early warning systems are required to report earthquake locations and magnitudes as quickly as possible before the damaging S wave arrival to mitigate seismic hazards. Deep learning techniques provide potential for extracting…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-02-16 Xiong Zhang , Miao Zhang , Xiao Tian

Forecasting earthquake sequences remains a central challenge in seismology, particularly under non-stationary conditions. While deep learning models have shown promise, their ability to generalize across time remains poorly understood. We…

We propose a theory based on dynamical systems to explain and predict the occurrence of extreme events, of which critical transitions form a subset. In fast-slow nonlinear systems, we identify a cascade of events preceding extreme events:…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-15 Riccardo Consonni , Luca Magri

We describe systematic ranging, an orbit determination technique especially suitable to assess the near-term Earth impact hazard posed by newly discovered asteroids. For these late warning cases, the time interval covered by the…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2015-07-15 D. Farnocchia , S. R. Chesley , M. Micheli

The accurate and automated determination of earthquake locations is still a challenging endeavor. However, such information is critical for monitoring seismic activity and assessing potential hazards in real time. Recently, a convolutional…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-03-03 Xiong Zhang , Jie Zhang , Congcong Yuan , Sen Liu , Zhibo Chen , Weiping Li

Local ionospheric density anomalies have been reported in the days prior to major earthquakes. This global study statistically investigates whether consistent ionospheric anomalies occur in the 24 hours prior to earthquakes across different…

Deep learning enhances earthquake monitoring capabilities by mining seismic waveforms directly. However, current neural networks, trained within specific areas, face challenges in generalizing to diverse regions. Here, we employ a data…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-10-04 Xiong Zhang , Miao Zhang

Forecasting fault failure is a fundamental but elusive goal in earthquake science. Here we show that by listening to the acoustic signal emitted by a laboratory fault, machine learning can predict the time remaining before it fails with…

We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-10-29 V. Gertsik , M. Kelbert , A. Krichevets

This study describes a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) based technique for the prediction of intensity measurements (IMs) of ground shaking. The input data to the CNN model consists of multistation 3C broadband and accelerometric…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-13 Dario Jozinović , Anthony Lomax , Ivan Štajduhar , Alberto Michelini

Since the beginning of this century, the significant advancements in artificial intelligence and neural networks have offered the potential to bring new transformations to short-term earthquake prediction research. However, currently, there…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-07-23 Zhiyu Xu , Qingliang Chen