Related papers: On flare predictability based on sunspot group evo…
Here, we test the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient ($WG_M$) as a flare precursor, introduced by Korsos et. al. (2015, ApJ, 802, L21), by applying it to a magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of solar-like flares Chatterjee et. al.…
It is widely assumed that the most probable sites of flare occurrences are the locations of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in the active regions. Instead of magnetograms the present work checks this assumption by using sunspot…
We apply a novel pre-flare tracking of sunspot groups towards improving the estimation of flare onset time by focusing on the evolution of the 3D magnetic field construction of AR 11429. The 3D magnetic structure is based on potential field…
There is a wide range of eruptions in the solar atmosphere which contribute to space weather, including the major explosions of radiation known as flares. To examine pre-event behavior in delta-spot regions, we use here a method based on…
In this article, we present the application of the weighted horizontal gradient of magnetic field (WGM) flare prediction method to 3-dimensional (3D) extrapolated magnetic configurations of 13 flaring solar active regions (ARs). The main…
Several papers provide evidences that the most probable sites of flare onset are the regions of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in solar active regions. Besides the localization of flare producing areas the present work intends to…
Most solar flares originate in sunspot groups, where magnetic field changes lead to energy build-up and release. However, few flare-forecasting methods use information of sunspot-group evolution, instead focusing on static point-in-time…
Solar active regions and the processes that occur in them have been extensively studied and analyzed and many types of models and characterizations have been proposed for the occurrence of different eruptive events that take place in the…
We describe a new tool developed for solar flare forecasting on the base of some sunspot group properties. Assuming that the flare frequency follows the Poisson statistics, this tool uses a database containing the morphological…
We propose to apply the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient ($WG_{M}$), introduced in Korsos et al (2015), for analysing the pre-flare and pre-CME behaviour and evolution of Active Regions (ARs) using the SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data catalogue.…
Four different methods are applied here to study the precursors of flare activity in the Active Region NOAA 10486. Two approaches track the temporal behaviour of suitably chosen features (one, the weighted horizontal gradient WGM, is…
Solar flares emanate from solar active regions hosting complex and strong bipolar magnetic fluxes. Estimating the probability of an active region to flare and defining reliable precursors of intense flares is an extremely challenging task…
Solar flares are a primary driver of space weather, and forecasting their occurrence remains a significant challenge. This paper presents a novel flare prediction model based on topologically derived photospheric magnetic parameters. We…
Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental…
With machine learning entering into the awareness of the heliophysics community, solar flare prediction has become a topic of increased interest. Although machine learning models have advanced with each successive publication, the input…
Improving the performance of solar flare forecasting is a hot topic in solar physics research field. Deep learning has been considered a promising approach to perform solar flare forecasting in recent years. We first used the Generative…
We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…
Solar flares occur due to the sudden release of energy stored in active-region magnetic fields. To date, the pre-cursors to flaring are still not fully understood, although there is evidence that flaring is related to changes in the…
Efficient prediction of solar flares relies on parameters that quantify the eruptive capability of solar active regions. Several such quantitative predictors have been proposed in the literature, inferred mostly from photospheric…
Solar flares are among the most severe space weather phenomena, and they have the capacity to generate radiation storms and radio disruptions on Earth. The accurate prediction of solar flare events remains a significant challenge, requiring…