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Posterior distributions often feature intractable normalizing constants, called marginal likelihoods or evidence, that are useful for model comparison via Bayes factors. This has motivated a number of methods for estimating ratios of…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-03 Maxime Rischard , Pierre E. Jacob , Natesh Pillai

The lognormal distribution describing, e.g., exponentials of Gaussian random variables is one of the most common statistical distributions in physics. It can exhibit features of broad distributions that imply qualitative departure from the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-07 M. Romeo , V. Da Costa , F. Bardou

We construct an unbiased estimator for function value evaluated at the solution of a partial differential equation with random coefficients. We show that the variance and expected computational cost of our estimator are finite and our…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-23 Jose Blanchet , Fengpei Li , Xiaoou Li

Several methods have been proposed to approximate the sum of lognormal RVs. However the accuracy of each method relies highly on the region of the resulting distribution being examined, and the individual lognormal parameters, i.e., mean…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-14 Marwane Ben Hcine , Ridha Bouallegue

An admissible estimator of the eigenvalues of the variance-covariance matrix is given for multivariate normal distributions with respect to the scale-invariant squared error loss.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-01-14 Yo Sheena , Akimichi Takemura

Given an i.i.d. sample drawn from some probability distribution on a finite set, the best (in the sense of least variance) linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) of the average of any quantity with respect to that distribution is the sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-28 Bastiaan J. Braams

We study the problem of estimating the common mean $\mu$ of $n$ independent symmetric random variables with different and unknown standard deviations $\sigma_1 \le \sigma_2 \le \cdots \le\sigma_n$. We show that, under some mild regularity…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-23 Luc Devroye , Silvio Lattanzi , Gabor Lugosi , Nikita Zhivotovskiy

When evaluating and comparing models using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), the uncertainty of the estimate is typically assessed using the variance of the sampling distribution. Considering the uncertainty is important, as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-16 Tuomas Sivula , Måns Magnusson , Aki Vehtari

The aim of the paper is to derive the numerical least-squares estimator for mean and variance of random variable. In order to do so the following questions have to be answered: (i) what is the statistical model for the estimation procedure?…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-20 Tomasz Suslo

In this paper, we consider a statistical problem of learning a linear model from noisy samples. Existing work has focused on approximating the least squares solution by using leverage-based scores as an importance sampling distribution.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-02-11 Siheng Chen , Rohan Varma , Aarti Singh , Jelena Kovačević

This paper considers the problem of estimating the variance of a sum of a triangular array of random vectors with heterogeneous means. When random vectors exhibit two-way cluster dependence or weak dependence, standard variance estimators…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-13 Luther Yap

In this note, we provide and prove exact formulas for the mean and the trace of the covariance matrix of harmonic measure, regarded as a parametric probability distribution.

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-27 Sirio Legramanti

From a suitable integral representation of the Laplace transform of a positive semi-definite quadratic form of independent real random variables with not necessarily identical densities a univariate integral representation is derived for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-11-01 T. Royen

For a sample of absolutely bounded i.i.d. random variables with a continuous density the cumulative distribution function of the sample variance is represented by a univariate integral over a Fourier series. If the density is a polynomial…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-10-10 T. Royen

We construct a novel estimator for the diffusion coefficient of the limiting homogenized equation, when observing the slow dynamics of a multiscale model, in the case when the slow dynamics are of bounded variation. Previous research…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-04 Theodoros Manikas , Anastasia Papavasiliou

Estimating the coefficients of a noisy polynomial phase signal is important in fields including radar, biology and radio communications. One approach attempts to perform polynomial regression on the phase of the signal. This is complicated…

Inference for statistics of a stationary time series often involve nuisance parameters and sampling distributions that are difficult to estimate. In this paper, we propose the method of orthogonal samples, which can be used to address some…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-03 Suhasini Subba Rao

We study the problem of estimability of means in undirected graphical Gaussian models with symmetry restrictions represented by a colored graph. Following on from previous studies, we partition the variables into sets of vertices whose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-24 Helene Gehrmann , Steffen L. Lauritzen

Standard variational lower bounds used to train latent variable models produce biased estimates of most quantities of interest. We introduce an unbiased estimator of the log marginal likelihood and its gradients for latent variable models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Yucen Luo , Alex Beatson , Mohammad Norouzi , Jun Zhu , David Duvenaud , Ryan P. Adams , Ricky T. Q. Chen

We study the probabilistic sampling of a random variable, in which the variable is sampled only if it falls outside a given set, which is called the silence set. This helps us to understand optimal event-based sampling for the special case…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-17 Maben Rabi , Junfeng Wu , Vyoma Singh , Karl Henrik Johansson
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