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Winning probabilities of The Hat Game (Ebert's Hat Problem) with three players and three colors are only known in the symmetric case: all probabilities of the colors are equal. This paper solves the asymmetric case: probabilities may be…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2021-11-25 Theo van Uem

Betting games provide a natural setting to capture how information yields strategic advantage. The Kelly criterion for betting, long a cornerstone of portfolio theory and information theory, admits an interpretation in the limit of…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-15 Maite Arcos , Renato Renner , Jonathan Oppenheim

In the last few decades, numerous experiments have shown that humans do not always behave so as to maximize their material payoff. Cooperative behavior when non-cooperation is a dominant strategy (with respect to the material payoffs) is…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2014-11-05 Valerio Capraro , Joseph Y. Halpern

We develop an approach to solve Barberis (2012)'s casino gambling model in which a gambler whose preferences are specified by the cumulative prospect theory (CPT) must decide when to stop gambling by a prescribed deadline. We assume that…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-08 Sang Hu , Jan Obloj , Xun Yu Zhou

The classic model of computable randomness considers martingales that take real or rational values. Recent work by Bienvenu et al. (2012) and Teutsch (2014) shows that fundamental features of the classic model change when the martingales…

Logic · Mathematics 2015-04-16 Ron Peretz

In all competitions where results are based upon an individual's performance the question of whether the outcome is a consequence of skill or luck arises. We explore this question through an analysis of a large dataset of approximately one…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-06-09 Joseph D. O'Brien , James P. Gleeson , David J. P. O'Sullivan

Consider a game where Alice generates an integer and Bob wins if he can factor that integer. Traditional game theory tells us that Bob will always win this game even though in practice Alice will win given our usual assumptions about the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2009-11-18 Lance Fortnow , Rahul Santhanam

We study independent private values auction environments in which the auctioneer's revenue depends nonlinearly on bidders' interim winning probabilities. Our framework accommodates heterogeneity among bidders and places no ad hoc…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-23 Pasha Andreyanov , Ilia Krasikov , Alex Suzdaltsev

In a casino where arbitrarily small bets are admissible, any betting strategy M can be modified into a savings strategy that, not only is successful on each casino sequence where M is (thus accumulating unbounded wealth inside the casino)…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-06-15 George Barmpalias , Nan Fang

Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in monetary wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes.…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2016-02-03 Ole Peters , Murray Gell-Mann

We consider the classic Kelly gambling problem with general distribution of outcomes, and an additional risk constraint that limits the probability of a drawdown of wealth to a given undesirable level. We develop a bound on the drawdown…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-03-22 Enzo Busseti , Ernest K. Ryu , Stephen Boyd

It is known that a player in a noncooperative game can benefit by publicly restricting his possible moves before play begins. We show that, more generally, a player may benefit by publicly committing to pay an external party an amount that…

General Economics · Economics 2024-01-05 James W. Bono , David H. Wolpert

The hypothesis that sub-network initializations (lottery) exist within the initializations of over-parameterized networks, which when trained in isolation produce highly generalizable models, has led to crucial insights into network…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-01 Bindya Venkatesh , Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Kowshik Thopalli , Prasanna Sattigeri

We study a fair division problem with indivisible items, namely the computation of maximin share allocations. Given a set of $n$ players, the maximin share of a single player is the best she can guarantee to herself, if she would partition…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-05-16 Georgios Amanatidis , Georgios Birmpas , Evangelos Markakis

We study a random game in which two players in turn play a fixed number of moves. For each move, there are two possible choices. To each possible outcome of the game we assign a winner in an i.i.d. fashion with a fixed parameter p. In the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-05 Natalia Cardona-Tobón , Anja Sturm , Jan M. Swart

We study a reinsurer who faces multiple sources of model uncertainty. The reinsurer offers contracts to $n$ insurers whose claims follow compound Poisson processes representing both idiosyncratic and systemic sources of loss. As the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-03 Emma Kroell , Sebastian Jaimungal , Silvana M. Pesenti

Consider gambler's ruin with three players, 1, 2, and 3, having initial capitals $A$, $B$, and $C$ units. At each round a pair of players is chosen (uniformly at random) and a fair coin flip is made resulting in the transfer of one unit…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-20 Persi Diaconis , Stewart N. Ethier

In the last few decades, numerous experiments have shown that humans do not always behave so as to maximize their material payoff. Cooperative behavior when non-cooperation is a dominant strategy (with respect to the material payoffs) is…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-06-27 Valerio Capraro , Joseph Y. Halpern

Consider the following one player game. A deck containing $m$ copies of $n$ different card types is shuffled uniformly at random. Each round the player tries to guess the next card in the deck, and then the card is revealed and discarded.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-20 Sam Spiro

In this paper we review some of the main results obtained in the field of truels. A "truel" is a generalization of a duel involving three players. Depending on the rules used for chosing the players, we may distinguish between the random,…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Pau Amengual , Raúl Toral