Related papers: Modeling and Predicting Popularity Dynamics of Mic…

The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…

The focus of this work is on developing probabilistic models for user activity in social networks by incorporating the social network influence as perceived by the user. For this, we propose a coupled Hidden Markov Model, where each user's…

People are increasingly relying on the Web and social media to find solutions to their problems in a wide range of domains. In this online setting, closely related problems often lead to the same characteristic learning pattern, in which…

Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…

Edge-caching is recognized as an efficient technique for future wireless cellular networks to improve network capacity and user-perceived quality of experience. Due to the random content requests and the limited cache memory, designing an…

The multivariate Hawkes process is a past-dependent point process used to model the relationship of event occurrences between different phenomena.Although the Hawkes process was originally introduced to describe excitation effects, which…

Predicting the popularity of online content on social platforms is an important task for both researchers and practitioners. Previous methods mainly leverage demographics, temporal and structural patterns of early adopters for popularity…

This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…

There has been a tremendous rise in the growth of online social networks all over the world in recent years. It has facilitated users to generate a large amount of real-time content at an incessant rate, all competing with each other to…

Online popularity has enormous impact on opinions, culture, policy, and profits. We provide a quantitative, large scale, temporal analysis of the dynamics of online content popularity in two massive model systems, the Wikipedia and an…

We propose a novel modeling framework for time-evolving networks allowing for long-term dependence in network features that update in continuous time. Dynamic network growth is functionally parameterized via the conditional intensity of a…

The rapid development of social media has significantly reshaped the dynamics of public opinion, resulting in complex interactions that traditional models fail to effectively capture. To address this challenge, we propose an innovative…

The event sequence of many diverse systems is represented as a sequence of discrete events in a continuous space. Examples of such an event sequence are earthquake aftershock events, financial transactions, e-commerce transactions, social…

This study applies dynamical and statistical modeling techniques to quantify the proliferation and popularity of trending hashtags on Twitter. Using time-series data reflecting actual tweets in New York City and San Francisco, we present…

Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…

Information spreading has been studied for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate, especially for those ones spreading extremely fast through Internet. By focusing on the information spreading data of six typical events…

If people with high risk of suicide can be identified through social media like microblog, it is possible to implement an active intervention system to save their lives. Based on this motivation, the current study administered the Suicide…

The ability to predict the size of information cascades in online social networks is crucial for various applications, including decision-making and viral marketing. However, traditional methods either rely on complicated time-varying…

Peer influence and social contagion are key denominators in the adoption and participation of information spreading, such as news propagation, word-of-mouth or viral marketing. In this study, we argue that it is biased to only focus on the…

Popularity of content in social media is unequally distributed, with some items receiving a disproportionate share of attention from users. Predicting which newly-submitted items will become popular is critically important for both…