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We propose moment-based variational inference as a flexible framework for approximate smoothing of latent Markov jump processes. The main ingredient of our approach is to partition the set of all transitions of the latent process into…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-15 Christian Wildner , Heinz Koeppl

The tuning of stochastic gradient algorithms (SGAs) for optimization and sampling is often based on heuristics and trial-and-error rather than generalizable theory. We address this theory--practice gap by characterizing the large-sample…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-21 Jeffrey Negrea , Jun Yang , Haoyue Feng , Daniel M. Roy , Jonathan H. Huggins

We study jump-diffusion processes with parameters switching at random times. Being motivated by possible applications, we characterise equivalent martingale measures for these processes by means of the relative entropy. The minimal entropy…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-21 Antonio Di Crescenzo , Nikita Ratanov

Markov jump processes and continuous time Bayesian networks are important classes of continuous time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of inferring unobserved paths in these models by introducing a fast auxiliary…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-02-20 Vinayak Rao , Yee Whye Teh

Jump functions are the {most-studied} non-unimodal benchmark in the theory of randomized search heuristics, in particular, evolutionary algorithms (EAs). They have significantly improved our understanding of how EAs escape from local…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Henry Bambury , Antoine Bultel , Benjamin Doerr

This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-07 Zeyu Zheng , Harsha Honnappa , Peter W. Glynn

Much work in the study of large deviations for random graph models is focused on the dense regime where the theory of graphons has emerged as a principal tool. These tools do not give a good approach to large deviation problems for random…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-07 Shankar Bhamidi , Amarjit Budhiraja , Paul Dupuis , Ruoyu Wu

Bayesian analysis for Markov jump processes is a non-trivial and challenging problem. Although exact inference is theoretically possible, it is computationally demanding thus its applicability is limited to a small class of problems. In…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-08 Vassilios Stathopoulos , Mark A. Girolami

We have created a functional framework for a class of non-metric gradient systems. The state space is a space of nonnegative measures, and the class of systems includes the Forward Kolmogorov equations for the laws of Markov jump processes…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2022-03-31 Mark A. Peletier , Riccarda Rossi , Giuseppe Savaré , Oliver Tse

We consider the semi-parametric estimation of a scale parameter of a one-dimensional Gaussian process with known smoothness. We suggest an estimator based on quadratic variations and on the moment method. We provide asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-22 Jean-Marc Azaïs , François Bachoc , Agnès Lagnoux , Thi Mong Ngoc Nguyen

Inspired by a duration-dependent life insurance model, we consider continuous-time semi-Markov jump processes, initially assumed to have a finite state-space. We develop approximations using jump processes that are time-homogeneous Markov,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-11 Martin Bladt , Andreea Minca , Oscar Peralta

We consider the gamma process perturbed by a Brownian motion (independent of the gamma process) as a degradation model. Parameters estimation is studied here. We assume that $n$ independent items are observed at irregular instants. From…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-06-16 Laurent Bordes , Christian Paroissin , Ali Salami

This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of Green functions associated to partially homogeneous random walks in the quadrant $Z_+^2$. There are four possible distributions for the jumps of these processes, depending on the location…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-14 Irina Ignatiouk-Robert

We consider random walks on discrete state spaces, such as general undirected graphs, where the random walkers are designed to approximate a target quantity over the network topology via sampling and neighborhood exploration in the form of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-30 Vishwaraj Doshi , Jie Hu , Do Young Eun

We study the asymptotics of large, moderate and normal deviations for the connected components of the sparse random graph by the method of stochastic processes. We obtain the logarithmic asymptotics of large deviations of the joint…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Anatolii A. Puhalskii

We consider importance sampling as well as other properly weighted samples with respect to a target distribution $\pi$ from a different point of view. By considering the associated weights as sojourn times until the next jump, we define…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 S. Malefaki , G. Iliopoulos

Motion Manifold Primitives (MMP), a manifold-based approach for encoding basic motion skills, can produce diverse trajectories, enabling the system to adapt to unseen constraints. Nonetheless, we argue that current MMP models lack crucial…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-19 Yonghyeon Lee

We introduce a new formulation of the Hidden Parameter Markov Decision Process (HiP-MDP), a framework for modeling families of related tasks using low-dimensional latent embeddings. Our new framework correctly models the joint uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-01 Taylor Killian , Samuel Daulton , George Konidaris , Finale Doshi-Velez

Recently-proposed particle MCMC methods provide a flexible way of performing Bayesian inference for parameters governing stochastic kinetic models defined as Markov (jump) processes (MJPs). Each iteration of the scheme requires an estimate…

Computation · Statistics 2014-05-19 Andrew Golightly , Daniel A. Henderson , Chris Sherlock

We study a one-dimensional Markov modulated random walk with jumps. It is assumed that amplitudes of jumps as well as a chosen velocity regime are random and depend on a time spent by the process at a previous state of the underlying Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-13 Nikita Ratanov
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