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Importance sampling is a promising variance reduction technique for Monte Carlo simulation based derivative pricing. Existing importance sampling methods are based on a parametric choice of the proposal. This article proposes an algorithm…

Applications · Statistics 2009-04-14 Jan C. Neddermeyer

Adaptive importance sampling is a class of techniques for finding good proposal distributions for importance sampling. Often the proposal distributions are standard probability distributions whose parameters are adapted based on the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-10 Topi Paananen , Juho Piironen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

Adaptive importance sampling is a widely spread Monte Carlo technique that uses a re-weighting strategy to iteratively estimate the so-called target distribution. A major drawback of adaptive importance sampling is the large variance of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-01 Anna Korba , François Portier

We develop a theoretical framework for studying numerical estimation of lower previsions, generally applicable to two-level Monte Carlo methods, importance sampling methods, and a wide range of other sampling methods one might devise. We…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-12 Matthias C. M. Troffaes

The sampling importance resampling method is widely utilized in various fields, such as numerical integration and statistical simulation. In this paper, two modified methods are presented by incorporating two variance reduction techniques…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-28 Yao Xiao , Kang Fu , Kun Li

We investigate in this paper an alternative method to simulation based recursive importance sampling procedure to estimate the optimal change of measure for Monte Carlo simulations. We propose an algorithm which combines (vector and…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-09-20 Noufel Frikha , Abass Sagna

In this paper we develop the large deviations principle and a rigorous mathematical framework for asymptotically efficient importance sampling schemes for general, fully dependent systems of stochastic differential equations of slow and…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-29 Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo technique for efficiently estimating the likelihood of rare events by biasing the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By drawing weighted samples from a learned proposal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Liam A. Kruse , Marc R. Schlichting , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to compute the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-10 Ahmed Kebaier , Jérôme Lelong

We construct importance sampling schemes for stochastic differential equations with small noise and fast oscillating coefficients. Standard Monte Carlo methods perform poorly for these problems in the small noise limit. With multiscale…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-03 Paul Dupuis , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos , Hui Wang

We consider the problem of unconstrained minimization of a smooth objective function in $\R^n$ in a setting where only function evaluations are possible. While importance sampling is one of the most popular techniques used by machine…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-03 Adel Bibi , El Houcine Bergou , Ozan Sener , Bernard Ghanem , Peter Richtárik

Importance sampling, which involves sampling from a probability density function (PDF) proportional to the product of an importance weight function and a base PDF, is a powerful technique with applications in variance reduction, biased or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Heasung Kim , Taekyun Lee , Hyeji Kim , Gustavo de Veciana

We show that the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator that is importance sampled from an exponential family is a convex function of the natural parameter of the distribution. With this insight, we propose an adaptive importance sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-12 Ernest K. Ryu , Stephen P. Boyd

Importance sampling approximates expectations with respect to a target measure by using samples from a proposal measure. The performance of the method over large classes of test functions depends heavily on the closeness between both…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-01 Daniel Sanz-Alonso

Importance sampling is a technique that is commonly used to speed up Monte Carlo simulation of rare events. However, little is known regarding the design of efficient importance sampling algorithms in the context of queueing networks. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Paul Dupuis , Ali Devin Sezer , Hui Wang

We present an algorithm for rigid body diffusion Monte Carlo with importance sampling, which is based on a rigorous short-time expansion of the Green's function for rotational motion in three dimensions. We show that this short-time…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-11-07 Alexandra Viel , Mehul V. Patel , Parhat Niyaz , K. Birgitta Whaley

We describe an adaptive importance sampling algorithm for rare events that is based on a dual stochastic control formulation of a path sampling problem. Specifically, we focus on path functionals that have the form of cumulate generating…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-01-30 Omar Kebiri , Lara Neureither , Carsten Hartmann

Importance sampling (IS) is a Monte Carlo technique that relies on weighted samples, simulated from a proposal distribution, to estimate intractable integrals. The quality of the estimators improves with the number of samples. However, for…

Computation · Statistics 2022-07-18 Medha Agarwal , Dootika Vats , Víctor Elvira

Improving efficiency of importance sampler is at the center of research in Monte Carlo methods. While adaptive approach is usually difficult within the Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework, the counterpart in importance sampling can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-12-11 Heng Lian

Importance sampling is a popular method for efficient computation of various properties of a distribution such as probabilities, expectations, quantiles etc. The output of an importance sampling algorithm can be represented as a weighted…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-18 Henrik Hult , Pierre Nyquist