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We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility…
We propose a fully data-driven, Koopman-based framework for statistically robust control of discrete-time nonlinear systems with linear embeddings. Establishing a connection between the Koopman operator and contraction theory, it offers…
Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…
We study a simple statistic for benchmarking how well a sample preserves a known bivariate dependence structure. Given a target copula family (Clayton or Gumbel) and parameter $\theta_P$, the Copula Discrepancy (CD) compares the target…
Systemic risk measures quantify the potential risk to an individual financial constituent arising from the distress of entire financial system. As a generalization of two widely applied risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall,…
We provide a selected overview of methodology and theory for estimation and inference on the edge weights in high-dimensional directed and undirected Gaussian graphical models. For undirected graphical models, two main explicit…
The g-formula can be used to estimate the treatment effect while accounting for confounding bias in observational studies. With regard to time-to-event endpoints, possibly subject to competing risks, the construction of valid pointwise…
Graphical models are powerful tools to investigate complex dependency structures in high-throughput datasets. However, most existing graphical models make one of the two canonical assumptions: (i) a homogeneous graph with a common network…
Research on Poisson regression analysis for dependent data has been developed rapidly in the last decade. One of difficult problems in a multivariate case is how to construct a cross-correlation structure and at the meantime make sure that…
Conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage under exchangeability, but standard constructions may lack robustness in the presence of outliers or heavy tails. We propose a robust conformal method based on a…
Algorithms for constraint-based causal discovery select graphical causal models among a space of possible candidates (e.g., all directed acyclic graphs) by executing a sequence of conditional independence tests. These may be used to inform…
We introduce causal inference reasoning to cross-over trials, with a focus on Thorough QT (TQT) studies. For such trials, we propose different sets of assumptions and consider their impact on the modelling strategy and estimation procedure.…
Astronomers often deal with data where the covariates and the dependent variable are measured with heteroscedastic non-Gaussian error. For instance, while TESS and Kepler datasets provide a wealth of information, addressing the challenges…
High-dimensional mixed data as a combination of both continuous and ordinal variables are widely seen in many research areas such as genomic studies and survey data analysis. Estimating the underlying correlation among mixed data is hence…
The estimation of dependencies between multiple variables is a central problem in the analysis of financial time series. A common approach is to express these dependencies in terms of a copula function. Typically the copula function is…
Variational methods are attractive for computing Bayesian inference for highly parametrized models and large datasets where exact inference is impractical. They approximate a target distribution - either the posterior or an augmented…
This paper develops an intuitive concept of perfect dependence between two variables of which at least one has a nominal scale. Perfect dependence is attainable for all marginal distributions. It furthermore proposes a set of dependence…
Sparse high dimensional graphical model selection is a popular topic in contemporary machine learning. To this end, various useful approaches have been proposed in the context of $\ell_1$-penalized estimation in the Gaussian framework.…
Variational inference (VI) has become a widely used approach for scalable Bayesian inference, but its performance strongly depends on the flexibility of the chosen variational family. In this work, we propose a novel variational family that…
The quantitative analysis of financial time series often reveals two distinct features that standard Gaussian frameworks fail to capture: heavy-tailed marginal distributions and the phenomenon of extreme co-movements.While extreme value…