Related papers: Coping with Negative Short-Rates
There are several approaches to modeling and forecasting time series as applied to prices of commodities and financial assets. One of the approaches is to model the price as a non-stationary time series process with heteroscedastic…
Pricing composite and quanto contracts requires a joint model of both the underlying asset and the exchange rate. In this contribution, we explore the potential of local-correlation models to address the challenges of calibrating synthetic…
We provide a deep connection between elastic drifted Brownian motions and inverses to tempered subordinators. Based on this connection, we establish a link between multiplicative functionals and dynamical boundary conditions given in terms…
This paper deals with the issue of concept drift in supervised machine learn-ing. We make use of graphical models to elicit the visible structure of the dataand we infer from there changes in the hidden context. Differently from previous…
We focus on the problem estimating a monotone trend function under additive and dependent noise. New point-wise confidence interval estimators under both short- and long-range dependent errors are introduced and studied. These intervals are…
This paper develops a control scheme, based on the use of Long Short-Term Memory neural network models and Nonlinear Model Predictive Control, which guarantees recursive feasibility with slow time variant set-points and disturbances, input…
We derive the first-passage-time statistics of a Brownian motion driven by an exponential time-dependent drift up to a threshold. This process corresponds to the signal integration in a simple neuronal model supplemented with an…
In this paper, we develop a theory of common decomposition for two correlated Brownian motions, in which, by using change of time method, the correlated Brownian motions are represented by a triplet of processes, $(X,Y,T)$, where $X$ and…
A classical inventory problem is studied from the perspective of embedded options, reducing inventory-management to the design of optimal contracts for forward delivery of stock (commodity). Financial option techniques \`{a} la…
We establish explicit socially optimal rules for an irreversible investment deci- sion with time-to-build and uncertainty. Assuming a price sensitive demand function with a random intercept, we provide comparative statics and economic…
Motivated by the connection between the Kyle equilibrium with static private signal and the Brownian bridge, we study a much broader class of bridges that allow one to consider more general equilibrium models, for example ones including…
In the classical model of stock prices which is assumed to be Geometric Brownian motion, the drift and the volatility of the prices are held constant. However, in reality, the volatility does vary. In quantitative finance, the Heston model…
We propose a reduced form set of two coupled continuous time equations linking the price of a representative asset and the price of a bond, the later quantifying the cost of borrowing. The feedbacks between asset prices and bonds are…
We consider the class of self-similar Gaussian stochastic volatility models, and compute the small-time (near-maturity) asymptotics for the corresponding asset price density, the call and put pricing functions, and the implied volatilities.…
We consider a generic market model with a single stock and with random volatility. We assume that there is a number of tradable options for that stock with different strike prices. The paper states the problem of finding a pricing rule that…
Starting from the characterization of the past time evolution of market prices in terms of two fundamental indicators, price velocity and price acceleration, we construct a general classification of the possible patterns characterizing the…
The objective of the paper is to price weather contracts using temperature as the underlying process when the later follows a mean-reverting dynamics driven by a time-changed Brownian motion coupled to a Gamma Levy subordinator and…
Given two time series, A and B, sampled asynchronously at different times {t_A_i} and {t_B_j}, termed "ticks", how can one best estimate the correlation coefficient \rho between changes in A and B? We derive a natural, minimum-variance…
In this paper, we propose a minimal model beyond geometric Brownian motion that aims to describe price actions with market inefficiency. From simple financial theory considerations, we arrive at a simple two-variable hidden Markovian time…
This paper explores the nonparametric estimation of the volatility component in a heteroscedastic scalar-on-function regression model, where the underlying discrete-time process is ergodic and subject to a missing-at-random mechanism. We…