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Extinction appears ubiquitously in many fields, including chemical reactions, population biology, evolution, and epidemiology. Even though extinction as a random process is a rare event, its occurrence is observed in large finite…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-12-22 Ira B. Schwartz , Eric Forgoston , Simone Bianco , Leah B. Shaw

Markov models are widely used to describe processes of stochastic dynamics. Here, we show that Markov models are a natural consequence of the dynamical principle of Maximum Caliber. First, we show that when there are different possible…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-28 Hao Ge , Steve Presse , Kingshuk Ghosh , Ken Dill

We study Langevin dynamics with stochastic diffusivity arising from fluctuations of the surrounding medium. The diffusivity is modeled as Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by symmetric dichotomous noise, which confines it to a finite…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-14 Dongho Lee , Jae-Hyung Jeon , Pascal Viot , Gleb Oshanin

The maximum likelihood approach is adapted to the problem of estimation of drift and diffusion functions of stochastic processes from measured time series. We reconcile a previously devised iterative procedure [Kleinhans et al., Physics…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-13 D. Kleinhans , R. Friedrich

We consider a random walk in random environment in the low disorder regime on $\mathbb Z^d$. That is, the probability that the random walk jumps from a site $x$ to a nearest neighboring site $x+e$ is given by $p(e)+\epsilon \xi(x,e)$, where…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-11-11 David Campos , Alejandro F. Ramirez

We demonstrate the possibility to systematically steer the most probable escape paths (MPEPs) by adjusting relative noise intensities in dynamical systems that exhibit noise-induced escape from a metastable point via a saddle point. Using a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-19 Paul H. Dannenberg , John C. Neu , Stephen W. Teitsworth

Chemical reactions can be modelled via diffusion processes conditioned to make a transition between specified molecular configurations representing the state of the system before and after the chemical reaction. In particular the model of…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-27 F. Pinski , A. M. Stuart , F. Theil

The time evolution of many physical, chemical, and biological systems can be modelled by stochastic transitions between the minima of the potential energy surface describing the system of interest. We show that in cases where there are two…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-09-11 S. P. Fitzgerald , A. Bailey Hass , G. Díaz Leines , A. J. Archer

We consider the following stochastic space-time fractional diffusion equation with vanishing initial condition:$$ \partial^{\beta} u(t, x)=- \left(-\Delta\right)^{\alpha / 2} u(t, x)+ I_{0+}^{\gamma}\left[\dot{W}(t, x)\right],\quad…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-20 Yuhui Guo , Jian Song , Ran Wang , Yimin Xiao

Path-wise observables--functionals of stochastic trajectories--are at the heart of time-average statistical mechanics and are central to thermodynamic inequalities such as uncertainty relations, speed limits, and correlation-bounds. They…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-21 Lars Torbjørn Stutzer , Cai Dieball , Aljaž Godec

For a model nonlinear dynamical system, we show how one may obtain its bifurcation behavior by introducing noise into the dynamics and then studying the resulting Langevin dynamics in the weak-noise limit. A suitable quantity to capture the…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2019-02-06 Debraj Das , Sayan Roy , Shamik Gupta

Statistical thermodynamics delivers the probability distribution of the equilibrium state of matter through the constrained maximization of a special functional, entropy. Its elegance and enormous success have led to numerous attempts to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-06-22 Themis Matsoukas

Inverse optimal control can be used to characterize behavior in sequential decision-making tasks. Most existing work, however, is limited to fully observable or linear systems, or requires the action signals to be known. Here, we introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Dominik Straub , Matthias Schultheis , Heinz Koeppl , Constantin A. Rothkopf

As written by statistician George Box "All models are wrong, but some are useful", standard diffusion derivation or Feynman path ensembles use nonphysical infinite velocity/kinetic energy nowhere differentiable trajectories - what seems…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-04-23 Jarek Duda

A simple and transparent derivation of the formally exact probability distribution for classical non-equilibrium systems is given. The corresponding stochastic, dissipative equations of motion are also derived.

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-05-08 Phil Attard

In stochastic resonance, a periodically forced Brownian particle in a double-well potential jumps between minima at rare increments, the prediction of which poses a major theoretical challenge. Here, we use a path-integral method to find a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-04-02 L. T. Giorgini , S. H. Lim , W. Moon , J. S. Wettlaufer

Functionals of particles' paths have diverse applications in physics, mathematics, hydrology, economics, and other fields. Under the framework of continuous time random walk (CTRW), the governing equations for the probability density…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-11-21 Xudong Wang , Yao Chen , Weihua Deng

A deterministic walk in a random environment can be understood as a general random process with finite-range dependence that starts repeating a loop once it reaches a site it has visited before. Such process lacks the Markov property. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-15 Ivan Matic

This paper presents a heuristic derivation of a geometric minimum action method that can be used to determine most-probable transition paths in noise-driven dynamical systems. Particular attention is focused on systems that violate detailed…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-03-06 John C. Neu , Akhil Ghanta , Stephen Teitsworth

We study closed systems of particles that are subject to stochastic forces in addition to the conservative forces. The stochastic equations of motion are set up in such a way that the energy is strictly conserved at all times. To ensure…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-05 Tânia Tomé , Mário J. de Oliveira