Related papers: Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Return Range Pro…

How to do big portfolio selection is very important but challenging for both researchers and practitioners. In this paper, we propose a new graph-based conditional moments (GRACE) method to do portfolio selection based on thousands of…

We propose a novel flexible bivariate conditional Poisson (BCP) INteger-valued Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (INGARCH) model for correlated count time series data. Our proposed BCP-INGARCH model is mathematically…

In financial markets, not only prices and returns can be considered as random variables, but also the waiting time between two transactions varies randomly. In the following, we analyse the statistical properties of General Electric stock…

This research addresses accurate option pricing by employing models beyond the traditional Black-Scholes framework. While Black-Scholes provides a closed-form solution, it is limited by assumptions of constant volatility, no dividends, and…

Using a time-varying approach, this paper examines the dynamics of volatility in the REIT sector. The results highlight the attractiveness and suitability of using GARCH based approaches in the modeling of daily REIT volatility. The paper…

We suggest two classes of multivariate GARCH--models which are both easy to estimate and perform well in forecasting the covariance matrix of more than one hundred stocks. We apply methods from random matrix theory (RMT) to determine the…

We introduce a Hawkes-like process and study its scaling limit as the system becomes increasingly endogenous. We derive functional limit theorems for intensity and fluctuations. Then, we introduce a high-frequency model for a price of a…

This study seeks to advance the understanding and prediction of stock market return uncertainty through the application of advanced deep learning techniques. We introduce a novel deep learning model that utilizes a Gaussian mixture…

We investigate the frequentist guarantees of the variational sparse Gaussian process regression model. In the theoretical analysis, we focus on the variational approach with spectral features as inducing variables. We derive guarantees and…

Geo-referenced data are characterized by an inherent spatial dependence due to the geographical proximity. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic spatiotemporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) process to describe the…

This paper presents a comparative analysis of univariate and multivariate GARCH-family models and machine learning algorithms in modeling and forecasting the volatility of major energy commodities: crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and…

This paper develops and estimates a multivariate affine GARCH(1,1) model with Normal Inverse Gaussian innovations that captures time-varying volatility, heavy tails, and dynamic correlation across asset returns. We generalize the…

We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…

HYGARCH model is basically used to model long-range dependence in volatility. We propose Markov switch smooth-transition HYGARCH model, where the volatility in each state is a time-dependent convex combination of GARCH and FIGARCH. This…

This paper considers quantile regression for a wide class of time series models including ARMA models with asymmetric GARCH (AGARCH) errors. The classical mean-variance models are reinterpreted as conditional location-scale models so that…

The majority of stylized facts of financial time series and several Value-at-Risk measures are modeled via univariate or multivariate GARCH processes. It is not rare that advanced GARCH models fail to converge for computational reasons, and…

A new model for stock price fluctuations is proposed, based upon an analogy with the motion of tracers in Gaussian random fields, as used in turbulent dispersion models and in studies of transport in dynamically disordered media. Analytical…

One of the most important features of financial time series data is volatility. There are often structural changes in volatility over time, and an accurate estimation of the volatility of financial time series requires careful…

With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical…

This paper introduces a new model for panel data with Markov-switching GARCH effects. The model incorporates a series-specific hidden Markov chain process that drives the GARCH parameters. To cope with the high-dimensionality of the…