Related papers: Particle Gibbs for Bayesian Additive Regression Tr…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models assume linearity between the endogenous variables and their lags. This assumption might be overly restrictive and could have a deleterious impact on forecasting accuracy. As a solution, we propose…

The combinatorial sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC) has been demonstrated to be an efficient complementary method to the standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for Bayesian phylogenetic tree inference using biological sequences. It is…

We consider Particle Gibbs (PG) as a tool for Bayesian analysis of non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. PG is a Monte Carlo (MC) approximation of the standard Gibbs procedure which uses sequential MC (SMC) importance sampling inside…

We develop a Bayesian non-parametric quantile panel regression model. Within each quantile, the response function is a convex combination of a linear model and a non-linear function, which we approximate using Bayesian Additive Regression…

We present a Bayesian approach to model cohort-level retention rates and revenue over time. We use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to model the retention component which we couple with a linear model for the revenue component.…

Vector autoregression has been widely used for modeling and analysis of multivariate time series data. In high-dimensional settings, model parameter regularization schemes inducing sparsity yield interpretable models and achieved good…

Bayesian quadrature (BQ) is a method for solving numerical integration problems in a Bayesian manner, which allows users to quantify their uncertainty about the solution. The standard approach to BQ is based on a Gaussian process (GP)…

Neural Networks and Decision Trees: two popular techniques for supervised learning that are seemingly disconnected in their formulation and optimization method, have recently been combined in a single construct. The connection pivots on…

The multinomial probit Bayesian additive regression trees (MPBART) framework was proposed by Kindo et al. (KD), approximating the latent utilities in the multinomial probit (MNP) model with BART (Chipman et al. 2010). Compared to…

In the realm of statistical learning, the increasing volume of accessible data and increasing model complexity necessitate robust methodologies. This paper explores two branches of robust Bayesian methods in response to this trend. The…

Ranking lists are often provided at regular time intervals in a range of applications, including economics, sports, marketing, and politics. Most popular methods for rank-order data postulate a linear specification for the latent scores,…

In longitudinal observational studies with time-to-event outcomes, a common objective in causal analysis is to estimate the causal survival curve under hypothetical intervention scenarios. The g-formula is a useful tool for this analysis.…

Additive-interactive regression has recently been shown to offer attractive minimax error rates over traditional nonparametric multivariate regression in a wide variety of settings, including cases where the predictor count is much larger…

Big Data often presents as massive non-probability samples. Not only is the selection mechanism often unknown, but larger data volume amplifies the relative contribution of selection bias to total error. Existing bias adjustment approaches…

The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother (PARIS) is a sequential Monte Carlo technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under Feynman--Kac path distributions. Under weak assumptions,…

To achieve the goal of providing the best possible care to each patient, physicians need to customize treatments for patients with the same diagnosis, especially when treating diseases that can progress further and require additional…

Additive models, such as produced by gradient boosting, and full interaction models, such as classification and regression trees (CART), are widely used algorithms that have been investigated largely in isolation. We show that these models…

Recognizing the successes of treed Gaussian process (TGP) models as an interpretable and thrifty model for nonparametric regression, we seek to extend the model to classification. Both treed models and Gaussian processes (GPs) have,…

We perform Bayesian optimization using a Gaussian process perspective on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Our BART Kernel (BARK) uses tree agreement to define a posterior over piecewise-constant functions, and we explore the space…

Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT) is a very successful ensemble learning algorithm widely used across a variety of applications. Recently, several variants of GBDT training algorithms and implementations have been designed and heavily…