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Related papers: Consistent Recalibration of Yield Curve Models

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We consider an HJM model setting for Markov-chain modulated forward rates. The underlying Markov chain is assumed to induce regime switches on the forward curve dynamics. Our primary focus is on the interest rate and energy futures markets.…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-16 Andreas Celary , Paul Eisenberg , Zehra Eksi

We propose a formulation to construct new classes of financial price processes based on the insight that the key variable driving prices $P$ is the earning-over-price ratio $\gamma \simeq 1/P$, which we refer to as the earning yield and is…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-21 Li Lin , Didier Sornette

We introduce a novel multi-factor Heston-based stochastic volatility model, which is able to reproduce consistently typical multi-dimensional FX vanilla markets, while retaining the (semi)-analytical tractability typical of affine models…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-20 Alvise De Col , Alessandro Gnoatto , Martino Grasselli

In this paper, we propose a new model to address the problem of negative interest rates that preserves the analytical tractability of the original Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model without introducing a shift to the market interest rates,…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-08 Marco Di Francesco , Kevin Kamm

The crisis that affected financial markets in the last years leaded market practitioners to revise well known basic concepts like the ones of discount factors and forward rates. A single yield curve is not sufficient any longer to describe…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2010-06-25 Andrea Pallavicini , Marco Tarenghi

We introduce a multiple curve framework that combines tractable dynamics and semi-analytic pricing formulas with positive interest rates and basis spreads. Negatives rates and positive spreads can also be accommodated in this framework. The…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-12-07 Zorana Grbac , Antonis Papapantoleon , John Schoenmakers , David Skovmand

We provide a general HJM framework for forward contracts written on abstract market indices with arbitrary fixing and payment adjustments, and featuring collateralization in any currency denominations. In view of this, we first provide a…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-06 Alessandro Gnoatto , Silvia Lavagnini

We propose a general framework for modeling multiple yield curves which have emerged after the last financial crisis. In a general semimartingale setting, we provide an HJM approach to model the term structure of multiplicative spreads…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-05 Christa Cuchiero , Claudio Fontana , Alessandro Gnoatto

This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of suitably time-modulated Hawkes processes with heavy-tailed kernels in a nearly unstable regime. We show that, under appropriate scaling, both the intensity processes and the rescaled Hawkes…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Emmanuel Gnabeyeu , Gilles Pagès , Mathieu Rosenbaum

Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) processes are extensively used in state-of-the-art models for the approximative pricing of financial derivatives. In particular, CIR processes are day after day employed to model instantaneous variances (squared…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-11-02 Mario Hefter , Arnulf Jentzen

We develop an arbitrage-free deep learning framework for yield curve and bond price forecasting based on the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) term-structure model and a dynamic Nelson-Siegel parameterization of forward rates. Our approach embeds a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-25 Xiang Gao , Cody Hyndman

We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-25 T. -N. Nguyen , M. -N. Tran , R. Kohn

In this paper, we propose a new exogenous model to address the problem of negative interest rates that preserves the analytical tractability of the original Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model with a perfect fit to the observed term-structure.…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2022-03-16 Marco Di Francesco , Kevin Kamm

The cubic regularization method (CR) and its adaptive version (ARC) are popular Newton-type methods in solving unconstrained non-convex optimization problems, due to its global convergence to local minima under mild conditions. The main aim…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-10-13 Yihang Gao , Michael K. Ng

This article proposes a Model Reference Adaptive Control (MRAC) strategy to achieve fixed-time convergence of parameter estimation and tracking errors for unknown linear time-invariant systems, without relying on the persistence of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-23 Chayan Kumar Paul , Krishanu Nath , Indra Narayan Kar , Denis Efimov , Rosane Ushirobira

Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-06 Charles Marx , Shengjia Zhao , Willie Neiswanger , Stefano Ermon

Pricing interest-rate financial derivatives is a major problem in finance, in which it is crucial to accurately reproduce the time-evolution of interest rates. Several stochastic dynamics have been proposed in the literature to model either…

This study develops an integrated stochastic modeling framework for pricing short and medium-maturity equity options and assessing interest-rate risk using the Heston (1993), Bates (1996), and CIR (1985) models. We calibrate the Heston…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-28 Nunik Srikandi Putri , Ajay Kumar Verma , Neo Paul Lesupi

We present compelling empirical evidence for a new interpretation of the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) term structure. We find that the average FRC follows a square-root law, with a prefactor related to the spot volatility, suggesting a…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Andrew Matacz , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

We propose and analyze numerical methods for the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model. To construct the methods, we first discretize the infinite dimensional HJM equation in maturity time variable using quadrature rules for approximating the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-06-07 M. Krivko , M. V. Tretyakov