Related papers: Estimating the Attack Ratio of Dengue Epidemics un…
Predicting whether to expect a high incidence of infectious diseases is critical for health surveillance. In the epidemiology of dengue, environmental conditions can significantly impact the transmission of the virus. Utilizing…
The effective reproduction number, R(t), is a central point in the study of infectious diseases. It establishes in an explicit way the extent of an epidemic spread process in a population. The current estimation methods for the time…
Predicting an infectious disease can help reduce its impact by advising public health interventions and personal preventive measures. Novel data streams, such as Internet and social media data, have recently been reported to benefit…
Epidemiological models may give some basic guidelines for public health practitioners, allowing to analyze issues that can influence the strategies to prevent and fight a disease. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model…
An age structured mathematical model with time dependent parameters is developed to investigate the dynamics of dengue transmission. Its properties are thoroughly analyzed in the first part of this work, as for example its disease free…
Dengue remains one of Brazil's major epidemiological challenges, marked by strong intra-urban inequalities and the influence of climatic and socio-environmental factors. This study analyzed confirmed dengue cases in Recife from 2015 to 2024…
Background: National or local laws, norms or regulations (sometimes and in some countries) require medical providers to report notifiable diseases to public health authorities. Reporting, however, is almost always incomplete. This is due to…
Dengue is a vector borne infectious disease. The disease is transmitted byAedes mosquitoes. In the present work, SEIR - SEI compartmental epidemiological model is used to describe dengue disease transmission dynamics. The human population…
Infection can spread easily on networks with heterogeneous degree distribution. Here, we considered targeted immunization on such networks, wherein a fraction of individuals with the highest connectivity are immunized. To quantify the…
After their re-emergence in the last decades, dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases are a potential threat to the lives of millions of people. Based on a data set of dengue cases in the Brazilian city of Fortaleza, collected from…
Multivariate count time series models are an important tool for the analysis and prediction of infectious disease spread. We consider the endemic-epidemic framework, an autoregressive model class for infectious disease surveillance counts,…
When an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reported cases is often the only available information that one can obtain during early stages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is to obtain a…
In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…
Dengue is a major threat to public health in Brazil, the world's sixth biggest country by population, with over 1.5 million cases recorded in 2019 alone. Official data on dengue case counts is delivered incrementally and, for many reasons,…
Dengue is a viral infection that can produce a severe fever and symptoms that may require hospitalization. It is transmitted between humans by the urban-adapted, day-biting Aedes mosquitoes and is therefore a particular problem in towns and…
Transmission rates are key in understanding the spread of infectious diseases. Using the framework of compartmental models, we introduce a simple method that enables us to reconstruct time series of transmission rates directly from…
Under limited available resources, strategies for mitigating the propagation of an epidemic such as random testing and contact tracing become inefficient. Here, we propose to accurately allocate the resources by computing over time an…
We analytically address disease outbreaks in large, random networks with heterogeneous infectivity and susceptibility. The transmissibility $T_{uv}$ (the probability that infection of $u$ causes infection of $v$) depends on the infectivity…
In this study, we develop and analyze a deterministic two-strain host-vector model for dengue transmission that incorporates key immuno-epidemiological mechanisms, including temporary cross-immunity, antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE),…
Based on approximately 90,000 confirmed dengue cases reported in Recife - a major city in northeastern Brazil - between 2015 and 2024, we conducted a neighborhood-level spatial analysis. Socioeconomic and demographic indicators from the…