Related papers: Classificatory Sorites, Probabilistic Supervenienc…
Categorical responses arise naturally within various scientific disciplines. In many circumstances, there is no predetermined order for the response categories, and the response has to be modeled as nominal. In this study, we regard the…
Deciding the positivity of a sequence defined by a linear recurrence with polynomial coefficients and initial condition is difficult in general. Even in the case of recurrences with constant coefficients, it is known to be decidable only…
We provide self-contained proof of a theorem relating probabilistic coherence of forecasts to their non-domination by rival forecasts with respect to any proper scoring rule. The theorem appears to be new but is closely related to results…
Positivity, the assumption that every unique combination of confounding variables that occurs in a population has a non-zero probability of an action, can be further delineated as deterministic positivity and stochastic positivity. Here, we…
Nonmonotonic reasoning is a pattern of reasoning that allows an agent to make and retract (tentative) conclusions from inconclusive evidence. This paper gives a possible-worlds interpretation of the nonmonotonic reasoning problem based on…
We present a solution to the problem of understanding a system that produces a sequence of temporally ordered observations. Our solution is based on generating and interpreting a set of temporal decision rules. A temporal decision rule is a…
When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far…
The superposition principle is a very basic ingredient of quantum theory. What may come as a surprise to many students, and even to many practitioners of the quantum craft, is tha superposition has limitations imposed by certain…
Anthropic reasoning is a critical tool to understand probabilities, especially in a large universe or multiverse. According to anthropic reasoning, we should consider ourselves typical among members of a reference class that must include…
Complex classifiers may exhibit "embarassing" failures in cases where humans can easily provide a justified classification. Avoiding such failures is obviously of key importance. In this work, we focus on one such setting, where a label is…
Spike synchrony, which occurs in various cortical areas in response to specific perception, action and memory tasks, has sparked a long-standing debate on the nature of temporal organization in cortex. One prominent view is that this type…
Cognitive theories for reasoning are about understanding how humans come to conclusions from a set of premises. Starting from hypothetical thoughts, we are interested which are the implications behind basic everyday language and how do we…
The principle that rational agents should maximize expected utility or choiceworthiness is intuitively plausible in many ordinary cases of decision-making under uncertainty. But it is less plausible in cases of extreme, low-probability risk…
Humans are sensitive to suspicious coincidences when generalizing inductively over data, as they make assumptions as to how the data was sampled. This results in smaller, more specific hypotheses being favored over more general ones. For…
In many situations, the decision maker observes items in sequence and needs to determine whether or not to retain a particular item immediately after it is observed. Any decision rule creates a set of items that are selected. We consider…
We study a simple example of a sequential game illustrating problems connected with making rational decisions that are universal for social sciences. The set of chooser's optimal decisions that manifest his preferences in case of a constant…
We present a propositional logic to reason about the uncertainty of events, where the uncertainty is modeled by a set of probability measures assigning an interval of probability to each event. We give a sound and complete axiomatization…
We study causal inference under case-control and case-population sampling. Specifically, we focus on the binary-outcome and binary-treatment case, where the parameters of interest are causal relative and attributable risks defined via the…
Probability theory, epistemically interpreted, provides an excellent, if not the best available account of inductive reasoning. This is so because there are general and definite rules for the change of subjective probabilities through…
Same/opposite relational responding, a fundamental aspect of human symbolic cognition, allows the flexible generalization of stimulus relationships based on minimal experience. In this study, we demonstrate the emergence of…