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We present a new and more efficient technique for computing the route that maximizes the probability of on-time arrival in stochastic networks, also known as the path-based stochastic on-time arrival (SOTA) problem. Our primary contribution…
A Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) uses a constellation of satellites around the earth for accurate navigation, timing, and positioning. Natural phenomena like space weather introduce irregularities in the Earth's ionosphere,…
Climate models are biased with respect to real-world observations. They usually need to be adjusted before being used in impact studies. The suite of statistical methods that enable such adjustments is called bias correction (BC). However,…
This work explores the impacts of magnetogram projection effects on machine learning-based solar flare forecasting models. Utilizing a methodology proposed by Falconer et al. (2016), we correct for projection effects present in Georgia…
The solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change is analyzed by using an empirical bi-scale climate model characterized by both fast and slow characteristic time responses to solar forcing: $\tau_1 =0.4 \pm 0.1$ yr, and…
AI weather foundation models now achieve forecast skill comparable to numerical weather prediction at far lower computational cost, yet their predictability for high-impact extremes across dynamical regimes remains uncertain. We evaluate…
Electricity is difficult to store, except at prohibitive cost, and therefore the balance between generation and load must be maintained at all times. Electricity is traditionally managed by anticipating demand and intermittent production…
Current and future space-based observatories such as the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and PLATO are set to provide an enormous amount of new data on oscillating stars, and in particular stars that oscillate similar to the…
To understand the origin of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs), we must study their injection time relative to other solar eruption manifestations. Traditionally the injection time is determined using the Velocity Dispersion Analysis (VDA)…
We examine the accuracy of a common technique for estimating the start time of solar energetic particle injection based on a linear fit to the observed onset time versus 1/(particle velocity). This is based on a concept that the first…
The solar wind, a continuous stream of charged particles from the Sun's corona, shapes the heliosphere and impacts space systems near Earth. Variations such as high-speed streams and coronal mass ejections can disrupt satellites, power…
Long-term stability stands as a crucial requirement in data-driven medium-range global weather forecasting. Spectral bias is recognized as the primary contributor to instabilities, as data-driven methods difficult to learn small-scale…
Building a reliable forecast of solar activity is a long-standing problem that requires to accurately describe past and current global dynamics. However, synoptic observations of magnetic fields and subsurface flows became available…
Slow waves are commonly observed on the entire solar atmosphere. Assuming a thin flux tube approximation, the cut-off periods of slow-mode magneto-acoustic-gravity waves that travel from the photosphere to the corona were obtained in Costa…
Space weather refers to conditions on the Sun, in the interplanetary space and in the Earth space environment that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human…
The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre produces 24/7/365 space weather guidance, alerts, and forecasts to a wide range of government and commercial end users across the United Kingdom. Solar flare forecasts are one of its products,…
A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes---fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and variations in…
A common problem in astronomy is the determination of the time shift between two otherwise identical time series of measured flux from a variable source, in short the determination of a time lag. Two examples of where this problem occurs…
Solar wind ion reflection at collisionless shocks regulates foreshock plasma dynamics, yet the quantitative dependence of reflected ion properties on upstream and shock-related parameters remains unclear, causing difficulties in predicting…
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks are an important part of the global communication infrastructure today. Despite ongoing efforts to improve their resilience, they remain vulnerable to component damage and deorbiting under harsh…