Related papers: Forward-reverse EM algorithm for Markov chains: co…
This paper describes a data reduction technique in case of a markov chain of specified order. Instead of observing all the transitions in a markov chain we record only a few of them and treat the remaining part as missing. The decision…
Forward and inverse models are used throughout different engineering fields to predict and understand the behaviour of systems and to find parameters from a set of observations. These models use root-finding and minimisation techniques…
Reversible Markov chains play a central role in stochastic modelling and in algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Motivated by the fundamental importance of reversibility in classical settings, this paper develops a…
Decentralized partially observable Markov decision process (DEC-POMDP) models sequential decision making problems by a team of agents. Since the planning of DEC-POMDP can be interpreted as the maximum likelihood estimation for the latent…
We present a convex-concave reformulation of the reversible Markov chain estimation problem and outline an efficient numerical scheme for the solution of the resulting problem based on a primal-dual interior point method for monotone…
When using the finite element method (FEM) in inverse problems, its discretization error can produce parameter estimates that are inaccurate and overconfident. The Bayesian finite element method (BFEM) provides a probabilistic model for the…
Motivated by reduction of computational complexity, this work develops sign-error adaptive filtering algorithms for estimating time-varying system parameters. Different from the previous work on sign-error algorithms, the parameters are…
In this brief note, we find formulas for the distribution and the transition probability matrices of a stochastic process described as a time-reversion in a finite time window of a Markov chain, with cluster observation of the Markov state…
Online (also called "recursive" or "adaptive") estimation of fixed model parameters in hidden Markov models is a topic of much interest in times series modelling. In this work, we propose an online parameter estimation algorithm that…
The continuous random energy model (CREM) is a toy model of spin glasses on $\{0,1\}^N$ that, in the limit, exhibits an infinitely hierarchical correlation structure. We give two polynomial-time algorithms to approximately sample from the…
Bond rating Transition Probability Matrices (TPMs) are built over a one-year time-frame and for many practical purposes, like the assessment of risk in portfolios or the computation of banking Capital Requirements (e.g. the new IFRS 9…
We study properties and parameter estimation of finite-state homogeneous continuous-time bivariate Markov chains. Only one of the two processes of the bivariate Markov chain is observable. The general form of the bivariate Markov chain…
The Stochastic Approximation EM (SAEM) algorithm, a variant stochastic approximation of EM, is a versatile tool for inference in incomplete data models. In this paper, we review the fundamental EM algorithm and then focus especially on the…
This paper focuses on the numerical approximation of random lattice reversible Selkov systems. It establishes the existence of numerical invariant measures for random models with nonlinear noise, using the backward Euler-Maruyama (BEM)…
We consider an HJM model setting for Markov-chain modulated forward rates. The underlying Markov chain is assumed to induce regime switches on the forward curve dynamics. Our primary focus is on the interest rate and energy futures markets.…
The aim of this paper is to develop and analyze numerical schemes for approximately solving the backward problem of subdiffusion equation involving a fractional derivative in time with order $\alpha\in(0,1)$. After using quasi-boundary…
This paper introduces Discrete Markov Probabilistic Models (DMPMs), a novel discrete diffusion algorithm for discrete data generation. The algorithm operates in discrete bit space, where the noising process is a continuous-time Markov chain…
Markov state modeling has gained popularity in various scientific fields since it reduces complex time-series data sets into transitions between a few states. Yet common Markov state modeling frameworks assume a single Markov chain…
Reversibility is a key concept in Markov models and Master-equation models of molecular kinetics. The analysis and interpretation of the transition matrix encoding the kinetic properties of the model relies heavily on the reversibility…
In this paper we derive the consistency of the penalized likelihood method for the number state of the hidden Markov chain in autoregressive models with Markov regimen. Using a SAEM type algorithm to estimate the models parameters. We test…