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We introduce Volume-Sorted Prediction Set (VSPS), a novel method for uncertainty quantification in multi-target regression that uses conditional normalizing flows with conformal calibration. This approach constructs flexible, non-convex…
Gaussian random fields on finite dimensional smooth manifolds whose variances reach their maximum value at smooth submanifolds are considered. Exact asymptotic behaviors of large excursion probabilities have been evaluated. Vector Gaussian…
We propose an extension of the non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR) model by Gneiting et al. (2005) that yields locally calibrated probabilistic forecasts of tem- perature, based on the output of an ensemble prediction system (EPS).…
The paper considers so-called adaptive estimations of regression, distribution density and spectral density of a Gaussian stationary sequence, asymptotically optimal in order at a growing number of observation on any regular subspace…
We study asymptotic anytime-valid confidence sequences for degree-two U-statistics under continuous monitoring. In the nondegenerate case, Hoeffding's projection reduces the problem to a time-uniform central limit theory for the partial…
In this paper, we derive higher order Edgeworth expansions for the finite sample distributions of the subsampling-based t-statistic and the Wald statistic in the Gaussian location model under the so-called fixed-smoothing paradigm. In…
This paper studies and critically discusses the construction of nonparametric confidence regions for density level sets. Methodologies based on both vertical variation and horizontal variation are considered. The investigations provide…
This article introduces a method for estimating the smoothness of a stationary, isotropic Gaussian random field from irregularly spaced data. This involves novel constructions of higher-order quadratic variations and the establishment of…
Robotic exploration in large-scale environments is computationally demanding due to the high overhead of processing extensive frontiers. This article presents an OctoMap-based frontier exploration algorithm with predictable, asymptotically…
A general approach to selective inference is considered for hypothesis testing of the null hypothesis represented as an arbitrary shaped region in the parameter space of multivariate normal model. This approach is useful for hierarchical…
We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…
We present an algorithm to perform trust-region-based optimization for nonlinear unconstrained problems. The method selectively uses function and gradient evaluations at different floating-point precisions to reduce the overall energy…
The region of attraction characterizes well-behaved and safe operation of a nonlinear system and is hence sought after for verification. In this paper, a framework for probabilistic region of attraction estimation is developed that combines…
We develop a method for probabilistic prediction of extreme value hot-spots in a spatio-temporal framework, tailored to big datasets containing important gaps. In this setting, direct calculation of summaries from data, such as the minimum…
Generalized belief propagation (GBP) has proven to be a promising technique for approximate inference tasks in AI and machine learning. However, the choice of a good set of clusters to be used in GBP has remained more of an art then a…
The large underlying assumption of climate models today relies on the basis of a "confident" initial condition, a reasonably plausible snapshot of the Earth for which all future predictions depend on. However, given the inherently chaotic…
Accurate uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks (GNNs) is essential, especially in high-stakes domains where GNNs are frequently employed. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a promising framework for quantifying uncertainty by…
We develop a formal statistical framework for classical multidimensional scaling (CMDS) applied to noisy dissimilarity data. We establish distributional convergence results for the embeddings produced by CMDS for various noise models, which…
Post-selection inference consists in providing statistical guarantees, based on a data set, that are robust to a prior model selection step on the same data set. In this paper, we address an instance of the post-selection-inference problem,…
We develop and implement a novel fast bootstrap for dependent data. Our scheme is based on the i.i.d. resampling of the smoothed moment indicators. We characterize the class of parametric and semi-parametric estimation problems for which…