Related papers: Granger causality for state space models
This report reviews the conceptual and theoretical links between Granger causality and directed information theory. We begin with a short historical tour of Granger causality, concentrating on its closeness to information theory. The…
Trivariate Granger causality analysis seeks to distinguish between "true" causality and "spurious" causality results from the topology of the system. However, this analysis is sensitive both to the choice of test criteria and the presence…
Inferring a cause from its effect using observed time series data is a major challenge in natural and social sciences. Assuming the effect is generated by the cause trough a linear system, we propose a new approach based on the hypothesis…
We aim to explicitly model the delayed Granger causal effects based on multivariate Hawkes processes. The idea is inspired by the fact that a causal event usually takes some time to exert an effect. Studying this time lag itself is of…
Identifying risk spillovers in financial markets is of great importance for assessing systemic risk and portfolio management. Granger causality in tail (or in risk) tests whether past extreme events of a time series help predicting future…
Since interactions in neural systems occur across multiple temporal scales, it is likely that information flow will exhibit a multiscale structure, thus requiring a multiscale generalization of classical temporal precedence causality…
We describe a new framework for causal inference and its application to return time series. In this system, causal relationships are represented as logical formulas, allowing us to test arbitrarily complex hypotheses in a computationally…
To gain insight into complex systems it is a key challenge to infer nonlinear causal directional relations from observational time-series data. Specifically, estimating causal relationships between interacting components in large systems…
This article investigates the causality structure of financial time series. We concentrate on three main approaches to measuring causality: linear Granger causality, kernel generalisations of Granger causality (based on ridge regression and…
Dynamical systems comprising of multiple components that can be partitioned into distinct blocks originate in many scientific areas. A pertinent example is the interactions between financial assets and selected macroeconomic indicators,…
This paper proposes a novel method (GLS Granger test) to determine causal relationships between time series based on the estimation of the autocovariance matrix and generalized least squares. We show the effectiveness of proposed…
Latent confounding has been a long-standing obstacle for causal reasoning from observational data. One popular approach is to model the data using acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs), which describe ancestral relations between variables…
The traditional two-stage approach to causal inference first identifies a single causal model (or equivalence class of models), which is then used to answer causal queries. However, this neglects any epistemic model uncertainty. In…
Causal reversibility blends reversibility and causality for concurrent systems. It indicates that an action can be undone provided that all of its consequences have been undone already, thus making it possible to bring the system back to a…
Latent autoregressive processes are a popular choice to model time varying parameters. These models can be formulated as nonlinear state space models for which inference is not straightforward due to the high number of parameters. Therefore…
Four different Granger causality-based methods - one linear and three nonlinear (Granger Causality, Kernel Granger Causality, large-scale Nonlinear Granger Causality, and Neural Network Granger Causality) were used for assessment and…
Graph topology inference of network processes with co-evolving and interacting time-series is crucial for network studies. Vector autoregressive models (VAR) are popular approaches for topology inference of directed graphs; however, in…
Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…
One major drawback of state-of-the-art artificial intelligence is its lack of explainability. One approach to solve the problem is taking causality into account. Causal mechanisms can be described by structural causal models. In this work,…
Causal inference uses observations to infer the causal structure of the data generating system. We study a class of functional models that we call Time Series Models with Independent Noise (TiMINo). These models require independent residual…