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Related papers: Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms

200 papers

The spatiotemporal variation in tropical air-sea interaction is investigated by applying a simple model that considers the fundamental dynamics in tropical oceans. The model decomposes sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) variation into a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-05-31 Yaokun Li

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most predominant interannual variability in the tropics, significantly impacting global weather and climate. In this paper, a framework of low-order conceptual models for the ENSO is…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-08-09 Nan Chen , Yinling Zhang

Tropical cyclones occur over the Earth's tropical oceans, with characteristic genesis regions and tracks tied to the warm ocean surface that provides energy to sustain these storms. The study of tropical cyclogenesis and evolution on Earth…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2024-02-27 Valeria Garcia , Cole M. Smith , Daniel R. Chavas , Thaddeus D. Komacek

We introduce a method for decomposition of trend, cycle and seasonal components in spatio-temporal models and apply it to investigate the existence of climate changes in temperature and rainfall series. The method incorporates critical…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-21 Marcio Poletti Laurini

We analyse extreme daily minimum temperatures in winter months over the island of Ireland from 1950-2022. We model the marginal distributions of extreme winter minima using a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD), capturing temporal and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-07 Dáire Healy , Jonathan A. Tawn , Peter Thorne , Andrew Parnell

The areal modeling of the extremes of a natural process such as rainfall or temperature is important in environmental statistics; for example, understanding extreme areal rainfall is crucial in flood protection. This article reviews recent…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-08-17 A. C. Davison , S. A. Padoan , M. Ribatet

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) obtained using instrumental and documentary proxy predictors from Eurasia is found to be characterized by a quasi 60-year dominant oscillation since 1650. This pattern emerges clearly once the NAO record…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-06-27 Adriano Mazzarella , Nicola Scafetta

The quantification of the interannual component of variability in climatological time series is essential for the assessment and prediction of the El Ni\~{n}o - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. This is achieved by estimating the deviation…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-14 Tommaso Proietti , Alessandro Giovannelli

Using a three-dimensional general circulation model, we show that the atmospheric dynamics on a tidally locked Earth-like exoplanet, simulated with the planetary and orbital parameters of Proxima Centauri b, support a longitudinally…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2023-07-14 Maureen Cohen , Massimo A. Bollasina , Paul I. Palmer , Denis E. Sergeev , Ian A. Boutle , Nathan J. Mayne , James Manners

Occurrences of tropical cyclones at a location are rare, and for many locations, only short periods of observations or hindcasts are available. Hence, estimation of return values (corresponding to a period considerably longer than that for…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-16 Ryota Wada , Jeremy Rohmer , Yann Krien , Philip Jonathan

The joint extremal spatial dependence of wind speed and significant wave height in the North East Atlantic is quantified using Metop satellite scatterometer and hindcast observations for the period 2007-2018, and a multivariate spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-16 Rob Shooter , Emma Ross , Agustinus Ribal , Ian R. Young , Philip Jonathan

Windstorms are a primary natural hazard affecting Europe that are commonly linked to substantial property and infrastructural damage and are responsible for the largest spatially aggregated financial losses. Such extreme winds are typically…

Applications · Statistics 2019-06-10 Paul Sharkey , Jonathan A. Tawn , Simon J. Brown

Statistical methods are required to evaluate and quantify the uncertainty in environmental processes, such as land and sea surface temperature, in a changing climate. Typically, annual harmonics are used to characterize the variation in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-17 Joshua S. North , Erin M. Schliep , Christopher K. Wikle

Identification and extraction of vortical structures and of waves in a disorganised flow is a mayor challenge in the study of turbulence. We present a study of the spatio-temporal behavior of turbulent flows in the presence of different…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2015-11-09 P. Clark di Leoni , P. J. Cobelli , P. D. Mininni

The impact of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the extratropics is investigated in an idealized, reduced-order model that has a tropical and an extratropical module. Unidirectional ENSO forcing is used to mimick the atmospheric…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-07-07 Stéphane Vannitsem , Jonathan Demaeyer , Michael Ghil

It is shown that the periodic alteration of night and day provides a chaotic dissipation mechanism for the North Atlantic (NAO) and Southern (SOI) climate oscillations. The wavelet regression detrended daily NAO index for last 60 years and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2010-07-20 A. Bershadskii

It is no secret that statistical modelling often involves making simplifying assumptions when attempting to study complex stochastic phenomena. Spatial modelling of extreme values is no exception, with one of the most common such…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-05 Lydia Kakampakou , Emma S. Simpson , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

We construct a network from climate records of different geographical sites in the North Atlantic. A link between two sites represents the cross-correlations between the records of each site. We find that within the different phases of the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-05-30 O. Guez , A. Gozolchiani , K. Yamasaki , Y. Berezin , S. Brenner , S. Havlin

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-29 Jonathan Koh , Daniel Steinfeld , Olivia Martius

Spatio-temporal problems exist in many areas of knowledge and disciplines ranging from biology to engineering and physics. However, solution strategies based on classical statistical techniques often fall short due to the large number of…

Applications · Statistics 2017-06-15 Emil B. Iversen , Rune Juhl , Jan K. Møller , Jan Kleissl , Henrik Madsen , Juan M. Morales