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In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models…
We employ a statistical model of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to investigate the relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) and North American TC landfall rates. The track model is conditioned on summer SST in the…
Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes,…
A recent report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) highlights that water-related disasters have caused the highest human losses among natural disasters over the past 50 years, with over 91\% of deaths occurring in low-income…
This study aims to improve the accuracy of weather predictions by discovering spatial correlations between Earth observations and atmospheric states. Existing numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems predict future atmospheric states at…
Accurate mapping of ocean bathymetry is a multi-faceted process, needed for safe and efficient navigation on shipping routes and for predicting tsunami waves. Currently available bathymetry data does not always provide the resolution to…
Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…
Conventional hurricane track generation methods typically depend on biased outputs from Global Climate Models (GCMs), which undermines their accuracy in the context of climate change. We present a novel dynamic bias correction framework…
The interaction between the Earths surface and the atmosphere plays a key role in the initiation of cumulus convection. Over the land surface, a necessary boundary condition to consider for resolving land-atmosphere interactions is soil…
Mediterranean cyclones are extreme meteorological events of which much less is known compared to their tropical, oceanic counterparts. The raising interest in such phenomena is due to their impact on a region increasingly more affected by…
West Seram District is an area of Maluku Province that has high rainfall intensity. Trend of erratic weather changes nowadays makes it important to know the information about rainfall intensity. To know this information, we need to know…
Atmospheric aerosols influence the Earth's climate, primarily by affecting cloud formation and scattering visible radiation. However, aerosol-related physical processes in climate simulations are highly uncertain. Constraining these…
Sea-levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and…
In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…
The influence of forest loss on rainfall remains poorly understood. Addressing this challenge Spracklen et al. recently presented a pan-tropical study of rainfall and land-cover that showed that satellite-derived rainfall measures were…
A functional time series approach is proposed for investigating spatial correlation in daily maximum temperature forecast errors for 111 cities spread across the U.S. The modelling of spatial correlation is most fruitful for longer forecast…
Climate change is causing the intensification of rainfall extremes. Precipitation projections with high spatial resolution are important for society to prepare for these changes, e.g. to model flooding impacts. Physics-based simulations for…
Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…
High-resolution climatic data are essential to many applications in environmental research. Here we develop a new semi-mechanistic downscaling approach for daily precipitation that incorporates high resolution (30 arc sec) satellite-derived…
Accurate and timely prediction of heavy rainfall events is crucial for effective flood risk management and disaster preparedness. By monitoring, analysing, and evaluating rainfall data at a local level, it is not only possible to take…