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In this paper we propose a novel approach to realize forecast verification. Specifically, we introduce a strategy for assessing the severity of forecast errors based on the evidence that, on the one hand, a false alarm just anticipating an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-05 Sabrina Guastavino , Michele Piana , Federico Benvenuto

In many applications, it is of interest to assess the relative contribution of features (or subsets of features) toward the goal of predicting a response -- in other words, to gauge the variable importance of features. Most recent work on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-23 Brian D. Williamson , Peter B. Gilbert , Noah R. Simon , Marco Carone

Decision trees are widely used for interpretable machine learning due to their clearly structured reasoning process. However, this structure belies a challenge we refer to as predictive equivalence: a given tree's decision boundary can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Hayden McTavish , Zachery Boner , Jon Donnelly , Margo Seltzer , Cynthia Rudin

Empirical studies in various social sciences often involve categorical outcomes with inherent ordering, such as self-evaluations of subjective well-being and self-assessments in health domains. While ordered choice models, such as the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-08 Riccardo Di Francesco

Importance weighted variational inference (Burda et al., 2015) uses multiple i.i.d. samples to have a tighter variational lower bound. We believe a joint proposal has the potential of reducing the number of redundant samples, and introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-14 Chin-Wei Huang , Kris Sankaran , Eeshan Dhekane , Alexandre Lacoste , Aaron Courville

We propose an algorithm named best-scored random forest for binary classification problems. The terminology "best-scored" means to select the one with the best empirical performance out of a certain number of purely random tree candidates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-28 Hanyuan Hang , Xiaoyu Liu , Ingo Steinwart

Importance weighting is a fundamental procedure in statistics and machine learning that weights the objective function or probability distribution based on the importance of the instance in some sense. The simplicity and usefulness of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-15 Masanari Kimura , Hideitsu Hino

Have you ever wondered how your feature space is impacting the prediction of a specific sample in your dataset? In this paper, we introduce Single Sample Feature Importance (SSFI), which is an interpretable feature importance algorithm that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-28 Joseph Gatto , Ravi Lanka , Yumi Iwashita , Adrian Stoica

Existing ordinal trees and random forests typically use scores that are assigned to the ordered categories, which implies that a higher scale level is used. Versions of ordinal trees are proposed that take the scale level seriously and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-02 Gerhard Tutz

Quantifying the usefulness of individual features in random forests learning can greatly enhance its interpretability. Existing studies have shown that some popularly used feature importance measures for random forests suffer from the bias…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-14 Chien-Ming Chi , Yingying Fan , Jinchi Lv

Dealing with datasets of very high dimension is a major challenge in machine learning. In this paper, we consider the problem of feature selection in applications where the memory is not large enough to contain all features. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-07 Antonio Sutera , Célia Châtel , Gilles Louppe , Louis Wehenkel , Pierre Geurts

Random forests are an ensemble method relevant for many problems, such as regression or classification. They are popular due to their good predictive performance (compared to, e.g., decision trees) requiring only minimal tuning of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-20 Nikolaus Umlauf , Nadja Klein

Few problems in statistics are as perplexing as variable selection in the presence of very many redundant covariates. The variable selection problem is most familiar in parametric environments such as the linear model or additive variants…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-25 Yi Liu , Veronika Ročková , Yuexi Wang

Most accurate predictions are typically obtained by learning machines with complex feature spaces (as e.g. induced by kernels). Unfortunately, such decision rules are hardly accessible to humans and cannot easily be used to gain insights…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-08-13 Alexander Zien , Nicole Kraemer , Soeren Sonnenburg , Gunnar Raetsch

Factor importance measures the impact of each feature on output prediction accuracy. Many existing works focus on the model-based importance, but an important feature in one learning algorithm may hold little significance in another model.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Chaofan Huang , V. Roshan Joseph

With rapid technological growth, automatic pronunciation assessment has transitioned toward systems that evaluate pronunciation in various aspects, such as fluency and stress. However, despite the highly imbalanced score labels within each…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-08-30 Heejin Do , Yunsu Kim , Gary Geunbae Lee

In machine learning, the choice of a learning algorithm that is suitable for the application domain is critical. The performance metric used to compare different algorithms must also reflect the concerns of users in the application domain…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-07-19 Aravind Kota Gopalakrishna , Tanir Ozcelebi , Antonio Liotta , Johan J. Lukkien

Variable importance plays a pivotal role in interpretable machine learning as it helps measure the impact of factors on the output of the prediction model. Model agnostic methods based on the generation of "null" features via permutation…

The estimation of advantage is crucial for a number of reinforcement learning algorithms, as it directly influences the choices of future paths. In this work, we propose a family of estimates based on the order statistics over the path…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-17 Lanxin Lei , Zhizhong Li , Dahua Lin

Random Forest has become one of the most popular tools for feature selection. Its ability to deal with high-dimensional data makes this algorithm especially useful for studies in neuroimaging and bioinformatics. Despite its popularity and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-10-13 Ender Konukoglu , Melanie Ganz