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We propose a novel probabilistic framework, termed LVM-GP, for uncertainty quantification in solving forward and inverse partial differential equations (PDEs) with noisy data. The core idea is to construct a stochastic mapping from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-31 Xiaodong Feng , Ling Guo , Xiaoliang Wan , Hao Wu , Tao Zhou , Wenwen Zhou

The increased demand for online prediction and the growing availability of large data sets drives the need for computationally efficient models. While exact Gaussian process regression shows various favorable theoretical properties…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-02 Armin Lederer , Alejandro Jose Ordonez Conejo , Korbinian Maier , Wenxin Xiao , Jonas Umlauft , Sandra Hirche

This paper proposes a new class of real-time optimization schemes to overcome system-model mismatch of uncertain processes. This work's novelty lies in integrating derivative-free optimization schemes and multi-fidelity Gaussian processes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-11 Panagiotis Petsagkourakis , Benoit Chachuat , Ehecatl Antonio del Rio-Chanona

Gaussian process regression is widely used because of its ability to provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and handle small or sparse datasets. However, it struggles with high-dimensional data. One possible way to scale this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-02 Bernardo Fichera , Viacheslav Borovitskiy , Andreas Krause , Aude Billard

In this article, we investigate posterior convergence in nonparametric regression models where the unknown regression function is modeled by some appropriate stochastic process. In this regard, we consider two setups. The first setup is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

The efficient simulation of the mean value of a non-linear functional of the solution to a linear stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with additive Gaussian noise is considered. A Galerkin finite element method is employed along…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-25 Andreas Petersson

This paper presents a nonparametric statistical modeling method for quantifying uncertainty in stochastic gradient systems with isotropic diffusion. The central idea is to apply the diffusion maps algorithm to a training data set to produce…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-02-10 Tyrus Berry , John Harlim

A method to reconstruct fields, source strengths and physical parameters based on Gaussian process regression is presented for the case where data are known to fulfill a given linear differential equation with localized sources. The…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-09-10 Christopher G. Albert

We propose a scalable, approximate inference hypernetwork framework for a general model of history-dependent processes. The flexible data model is based on a neural ordinary differential equation (NODE) representing the evolution of…

Gaussian processes are flexible probabilistic regression models which are widely used in statistics and machine learning. However, a drawback is their limited scalability to large data sets. To alleviate this, full-scale approximations…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Tim Gyger , Reinhard Furrer , Fabio Sigrist

In stochastic variational inference, the variational Bayes objective function is optimized using stochastic gradient approximation, where gradients computed on small random subsets of data are used to approximate the true gradient over the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-19 Linda S. L. Tan , David J. Nott

A new approach in stochastic optimization via the use of stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) algorithms, which is a variant of stochastic gradient decent (SGD) methods, allows us to efficiently approximate global minimizers of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-06 Sotirios Sabanis , Ying Zhang

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Hwanwoo Kim , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

Algorithms for Gaussian process, marginal likelihood methods or restricted maximum likelihood methods often require derivatives of log determinant terms. These log determinants are usually parametric with variance parameters of the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-05 Shengxin Zhu , Andrew J Wathen

In this paper, we provide new insights on the Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm. We show that this method can be formulated as a first order optimization algorithm of an objective functional defined on the Wasserstein space of order $2$. Using…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-30 Alain Durmus , Szymon Majewski , Błażej Miasojedow

In this paper, we develop an efficient numerical solver for unsteady diffusion-type partial differential equations with random coefficients. A major computational challenge in such problems lies in repeatedly handling large-scale linear…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-19 Yujun Zhu , Min Li , Yulan Ning , Ju Ming

We report an exact likelihood computation for Linear Gaussian Markov processes that is more scalable than existing algorithms for complex models and sparsely sampled signals. Better scaling is achieved through elimination of repeated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-21 Stijn de Waele

We introduce a new interpretation of sparse variational approximations for Gaussian processes using inducing points, which can lead to more scalable algorithms than previous methods. It is based on decomposing a Gaussian process as a sum of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-27 Jiaxin Shi , Michalis K. Titsias , Andriy Mnih

In this letter, a new filtering technique to solve a nonlinear state estimation problem has been developed. It is well known that for a nonlinear system, the prior and posterior probability density functions (pdf) are non-Gaussian in…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-03 Kundan Kumar , Shovan Bhaumik

Probabilistic programs with mixed support (both continuous and discrete latent random variables) commonly appear in many probabilistic programming systems (PPSs). However, the existence of the discrete random variables prohibits many basic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-06 David Tolpin , Yuan Zhou , Hongseok Yang
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