Related papers: Fractionally integrated COGARCH processes
For a GJR-GARCH specification with a generic innovation distribution we derive analytic expressions for the first four conditional moments of the forward and aggregated returns and variances. Moment for the most commonly used GARCH models…
This paper seeks to forecast intraday volatility curves for major foreign exchange (FX) currencies using functional GARCH models. Intraday return curves are observed at a daily frequency, yet preserve the full high-frequency trading…
Coarse-graining techniques play a central role in reducing the complexity of stochastic models, and are typically characterised by a mapping which projects the full state of the system onto a smaller set of variables which captures the…
Recent empirical evidence has highlighted the crucial role of jumps in both price and volatility within the cryptocurrency market. In this paper, we integrate price--volatility co-jumps and volatility short-term dependency into a coherent…
Estimating conditional quantiles of financial time series is essential for risk management and many other applications in finance. It is well-known that financial time series display conditional heteroscedasticity. Among the large number of…
AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models are standard for modeling time series exhibiting volatility, with a rich literature in univariate and multivariate settings. In recent years, these models have been extended to…
We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation…
Stochastic volatility models based on Gaussian processes, like fractional Brownian motion, are able to reproduce important stylized facts of financial markets such as rich autocorrelation structures, persistence and roughness of sample…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…
We employ single-qubit quantum circuit learning (QCL) to model the dynamics of volatility time series. To assess its effectiveness, we generate synthetic data using the Rational GARCH model, which is specifically designed to capture…
The process $(G_t)_{t\in[0,T]}$ is referred to as a fractional Gaussian process if the first-order partial derivative of the difference between its covariance function and that of the fractional Brownian motion $(B^H_t)_{t\in[0,T ]}$ is a…
We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…
The Multi-Output Gaussian Process is is a popular tool for modelling data from multiple sources. A typical choice to build a covariance function for a MOGP is the Linear Model of Coregionalization (LMC) which parametrically models the…
Functional covariates arise in many scientific and engineering applications when model inputs take the form of time-dependent or spatially distributed profiles, such as varying boundary conditions or changing material behaviours. In…
We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…
Gaussian processes have become a popular tool for nonparametric regression because of their flexibility and uncertainty quantification. However, they often use stationary kernels, which limit the expressiveness of the model and may be…
This paper presents an efficient variational inference framework for deriving a family of structured gaussian process regression network (SGPRN) models. The key idea is to incorporate auxiliary inducing variables in latent functions and…
In this paper, we introduce flexible observation-driven $\mathbb{Z}$-valued time series models constructed from mixtures of negative and non-negative components. Compared to models based on the standard Skellam distribution or on a…
This article develops a periodic version of a time varying parameter fractional process in the stationary region. It is a partial extension of Hosking (1981)'s article which dealt with the case where the coefficients are invariant in time.…
This study addresses the computational challenges of forecasting volatility in high-dimensional commodity markets. Building on the Network log-ARCH framework, we introduce a novel class of network topologies from GARCH-informed correlation…