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Policy makers typically face the problem of wanting to estimate the long-term effects of novel treatments, while only having historical data of older treatment options. We assume access to a long-term dataset where only past treatments were…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-11 Keith Battocchi , Eleanor Dillon , Maggie Hei , Greg Lewis , Miruna Oprescu , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Fairness-aware learning studies the development of algorithms that avoid discriminatory decision outcomes despite biased training data. While most studies have concentrated on immediate bias in static contexts, this paper highlights the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Jacob Lear , Lu Zhang

We describe and contrast two distinct problem areas for statistical causality: studying the likely effects of an intervention ("effects of causes"), and studying whether there is a causal link between the observed exposure and outcome in an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-02 A. Philip Dawid , Monica Musio

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Zheng Li , Xichen Guo , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Zhi Geng

Humans spend a remarkable fraction of waking life engaged in acts of "mental time travel". We dwell on our actions in the past and experience satisfaction or regret. More than merely autobiographical storytelling, we use these event…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-12-24 Chia-Chun Hung , Timothy Lillicrap , Josh Abramson , Yan Wu , Mehdi Mirza , Federico Carnevale , Arun Ahuja , Greg Wayne

Researchers are often interested in treatment effects on outcomes that are only defined conditional on a post-treatment event status. For example, in a study of the effect of different cancer treatments on quality of life at end of…

Many psychological experiments have subjects repeat a task to gain the statistical precision required to test quantitative theories of psychological performance. In such experiments, time-on-task can have sizable effects on performance,…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-05 David Gunawan , Guy E. Hawkins , Robert Kohn , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Scott D. Brown

Despite the excelling performance of machine learning models, understanding their decisions remains a long-standing goal. Although commonly used attribution methods from explainable AI attempt to address this issue, they typically rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Juan Miguel Lopez Alcaraz , Nils Strodthoff

Generating explanations for reinforcement learning (RL) is challenging as actions may produce long-term effects on the future. In this paper, we develop a novel framework for explainable RL by learning a causal world model without prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-19 Zhongwei Yu , Jingqing Ruan , Dengpeng Xing

Reinforcement learning in multiagent systems has been studied in the fields of economic game theory, artificial intelligence and statistical physics by developing an analytical understanding of the learning dynamics (often in relation to…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2019-06-25 Wolfram Barfuss , Jonathan F. Donges , Jürgen Kurths

The causal effect of an intervention (treatment/exposure) on an outcome can be estimated by: i) specifying knowledge about the data-generating process; ii) assessing under what assumptions a target quantity, such as for example a causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-05 Michael Schomaker

Heralding the advent of autonomous vehicles and mobile robots that interact with humans, responsibility in spatial interaction is burgeoning as a research topic. Even though metrics of responsibility tailored to spatial interactions have…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Vassil Guenov , Ashwin George , Arkady Zgonnikov , David A. Abbink , Luciano Cavalcante Siebert

Our research is concerned with studying behavioural changes within a dynamic system, i.e. health care, and their effects on the decision-making process. Evolutionary Game theory is applied to investigate the most probable strategy(ies)…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-09-10 Zainab Alalawi , Yifeng Zeng , The Anh Han , Aiman Elragig

We investigate the estimation of the causal effect of a treatment variable on an outcome in the presence of a latent confounder. We first show that the causal effect is identifiable under certain conditions when data is available from…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Yaroslav Kivva , Sina Akbari , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

Agent-based models are versatile tools for studying how societal opinion change, including political polarization and cultural diffusion, emerges from individual behavior. This study expands agents' psychological realism using…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2017-02-22 Peter Duggins

Longitudinal modified treatment policies (LMTP) have been recently developed as a novel method to define and estimate causal parameters that depend on the natural value of treatment. LMTPs represent an important advancement in causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-06 Iván Díaz , Katherine L Hoffman , Nima S. Hejazi

This paper investigates causal influences between agents linked by a social graph and interacting over time. In particular, the work examines the dynamics of social learning models and distributed decision-making protocols, and derives…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Mert Kayaalp , Ali H. Sayed

Situations where individuals have to contribute to joint efforts or share scarce resources are ubiquitous. Yet, without proper mechanisms to ensure cooperation, the evolutionary pressure to maximize individual success tends to create a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2010-05-03 Dirk Helbing , Attila Szolnoki , Matjaz Perc , Gyorgy Szabo

Theoretical developments in sequential Bayesian analysis of multivariate dynamic models underlie new methodology for causal prediction. This extends the utility of existing models with computationally efficient methodology, enabling routine…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-05 Kevin Li , Graham Tierney , Christoph Hellmayr , Mike West

Understanding how biological organisms make decisions is of fundamental importance in understanding behavior. Such an understanding within evolutionary game theory so far has been sought by appealing to bounded rationality. Here, we present…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-12-16 Mohammad Salahshour