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Model selection aims to identify a sufficiently well performing model that is possibly simpler than the most complex model among a pool of candidates. However, the decision-making process itself can inadvertently introduce non-negligible…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-08 Yann McLatchie , Aki Vehtari

Knowing the link between observed predictive variables and outcomes is crucial for making inference in any regression model. When this link is missing, partially or completely, classical estimation methods fail in recovering the true…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-28 Fadoua Balabdaoui , Jinyu Chen

Gradient descent is one of the most widely used iterative algorithms in modern statistical learning. However, its precise algorithmic dynamics in high-dimensional settings remain only partially understood, which has limited its broader…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-19 Qiyang Han , Xiaocong Xu

Models notoriously suffer from dataset biases which are detrimental to robustness and generalization. The identify-emphasize paradigm shows a promising effect in dealing with unknown biases. However, we find that it is still plagued by two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Bowen Zhao , Chen Chen , Qian-Wei Wang , Anfeng He , Shu-Tao Xia

We consider the problem of optimising the expected value of a loss functional over a nonlinear model class of functions, assuming that we have only access to realisations of the gradient of the loss. This is a classical task in statistics,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Robert Gruhlke , Anthony Nouy , Philipp Trunschke

Most high-dimensional estimation and prediction methods propose to minimize a cost function (empirical risk) that is written as a sum of losses associated to each data point. In this paper we focus on the case of non-convex losses, which is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-01-17 Song Mei , Yu Bai , Andrea Montanari

Additive smooth models, such as Generalized additive models (GAMs) of location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS), are a popular choice for modeling experimental data. However, software available to fit such models is usually not tailored…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Joshua Krause , Jelmer P. Borst , Jacolien van Rij

This paper investigates the use of stratified sampling as a variance reduction technique for approximating integrals over large dimensional spaces. The accuracy of this method critically depends on the choice of the space partition, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-15 Pierre Etoré , Gersende Fort , Benjamin Jourdain , Eric Moulines

Randomized algorithms that base iteration-level decisions on samples from some pool are ubiquitous in machine learning and optimization. Examples include stochastic gradient descent and randomized coordinate descent. This paper makes…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-02-21 Benjamin Recht , Christopher Re

Propensity score weighting is a common method for estimating treatment effects with survey data. The method is applied to minimize confounding using measured covariates that are often different between individuals in treatment and control.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-06 Yukang Zeng , Fan Li , Guangyu Tong

The Big Data revolution is challenging the state-of-the-art statistical and econometric techniques not only for the computational burden connected with the high volume and speed which data are generated, but even more for the variety of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-25 Giuseppe Arbia , Vincenzo Nardelli

The recent proliferation of computers and the internet have opened new opportunities for collecting and processing data. However, such data are often obtained without a well-planned probability survey design. Such non-probability based…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-28 Vladislav Beresovsky , Julie Gershunskaya , Terrance D. Savitsky

This paper addresses the challenge of model uncertainty in quantitative finance, where decisions in portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and risk management rely on estimating stochastic models from limited data. In practice, the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-10 Hans Buehler , Blanka Horvath , Yannick Limmer , Thorsten Schmidt

Many applications in machine learning or signal processing involve nonsmooth optimization problems. This nonsmoothness brings a low-dimensional structure to the optimal solutions. In this paper, we propose a randomized proximal gradient…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-29 Dmitry Grishchenko , Franck Iutzeler , Jérôme Malick

Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users. Although applications of probabilistic prediction and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Hristos Tyralis , Georgia Papacharalampous

The model interpretation is essential in many application scenarios and to build a classification model with a ease of model interpretation may provide useful information for further studies and improvement. It is common to encounter with a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-07 Wan-Ping Nicole Chen , Yuan-chin Ivan Chang

We consider a class of stochastic gradient optimization schemes. Assuming that the objective function is strongly convex, we prove weak error estimates which are uniform in time for the error between the solution of the numerical scheme,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Charles-Edouard Bréhier , Marc Dambrine , Nassim En-Nebbazi

Survey sampling is concerned with the estimation of finite population parameters. In practice, survey data suffer from item nonresponse, which is commonly handled through imputation, i.e., replacing missing values with predicted values. As…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-06 Ziming An , Mehdi Dagdoug , David Haziza

In this paper we present a technique to couple non-traditional data with statistics based on survey data, in order to partially correct for the bias produced by non-random sample selections. All major social media platforms represent huge…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-21 Valerio Astuti

We combine Bayesian prediction and weighted inference as a unified approach to survey inference. The general principles of Bayesian analysis imply that models for survey outcomes should be conditional on all variables that affect the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-24 Yajuan Si , Rob Trangucci , Jonah Sol Gabry , Andrew Gelman