Related papers: Shortfall Deviation Risk: An alternative to risk m…

In this article, we propose two classes of relative information measures based on extropy, viz., the generalized extropy similarity ratio (GESR) and generalized extropy divergence ratio (GEDR), that measure the similarity and discrepancy…

We propose a novel Fr\'echet sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) method based on kernel distance covariance, tailored for metric space-valued responses such as count data, probability densities, and other complex structures. The method…

This paper applies an AR(1)-GARCH (1, 1) process to detail the conditional distributions of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses the conditional distribution for these…

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is perhaps the most prevalent optimization method in modern machine learning. Contrary to the empirical practice of sampling from the datasets without replacement and with (possible) reshuffling at each…

The stochastic gradient descent (SGD) method is a widely used approach for solving stochastic optimization problems, but its convergence is typically slow. Existing variance reduction techniques, such as SAGA, improve convergence by…

We study the regret guarantee for risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RSRL) via distributional reinforcement learning (DRL) methods. In particular, we consider finite episodic Markov decision processes whose objective is the entropic…

We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…

The celebrated Expected Shortfall (ES) optimization formula implies that ES at a fixed probability level is the minimum of a linear real function plus a scaled mean excess function. We establish a reverse ES optimization formula, which says…

Risk-averse reinforcement learning (RARL) is critical for decision-making under uncertainty, which is especially valuable in high-stake applications. However, most existing works focus on risk measures, e.g., conditional value-at-risk…

False discovery rates (FDR) are an essential component of statistical inference, representing the propensity for an observed result to be mistaken. FDR estimates should accompany observed results to help the user contextualize the relevance…

This paper shows that sequential statistical analysis techniques can be generalised to the problem of selecting between alternative forecasting methods using scoring rules. A return to basic principles is necessary in order to show that…

The statistical tests that are commonly used for detecting mean or median treatment effects suffer from low power when the two distribution functions differ only in the upper (or lower) tail, as in the assessment of the Total Sharp Score…

Distributional reinforcement learning (DRL) enhances the understanding of the effects of the randomness in the environment by letting agents learn the distribution of a random return, rather than its expected value as in standard RL. At the…

This note introduces a doubly robust (DR) estimator for regression discontinuity (RD) designs. RD designs provide a quasi-experimental framework for estimating treatment effects, where treatment assignment depends on whether a running…

We consider the problem of estimating a spectral risk measure (SRM) from i.i.d. samples, and propose a novel method that is based on numerical integration. We show that our SRM estimate concentrates exponentially, when the underlying…

Optimization of distortion riskmetrics with distributional uncertainty has wide applications in finance and operations research. Distortion riskmetrics include many commonly applied risk measures and deviation measures, which are not…

Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of…

Appropriate risk management is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of financial institutions and the stability of the economy. One widely used financial risk measure is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR estimates based on linear and parametric…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are widely used in the financial sector to measure the market risk and manage the extreme market movement. The recent link between the quantile score function and the Asymmetric Laplace…

We consider dynamic sublinear expectations (i.e., time-consistent coherent risk measures) whose scenario sets consist of singular measures corresponding to a general form of volatility uncertainty. We derive a c\`adl\`ag nonlinear…