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This paper proposes a statistically optimal approach for learning a function value using a confidence interval in a wide range of models, including general non-parametric estimation of an expected loss described as a stochastic programming…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-07 Arnab Ganguly , Tobias Sutter

Selective prediction, where a model has the option to abstain from making a decision, is crucial for machine learning applications in which mistakes are costly. In this work, we focus on distributional regression and introduce a framework…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-01 Ahmed Zaoui , Clément Dombry

We derive computationally tractable methods to select a small subset of experiment settings from a large pool of given design points. The primary focus is on linear regression models, while the technique extends to generalized linear models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-21 Yining Wang , Adams Wei Yu , Aarti Singh

Optimal designs are required to make efficient statistical experiments. D-optimal designs for some models are calculated by using canonical moments. On the other hand, integrable systems are dynamical systems whose solutions can be written…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-06 Hiroto Sekido

Estimation frameworks for statistical inference are preferred to hypothesis testing when quantifying uncertainty and precise estimation are more valuable than binary decisions about statistical significance. Study design for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens

This paper considers the problem of determining an optimal control action based on observed data. We formulate the problem assuming that the system can be modelled by a nonlinear state-space model, but where the model parameters, state and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-02 Johannes N. Hendriks , James R. Z. Holdsworth , Adrian G. Wills , Thomas B. Schon , Brett Ninness

We construct confidence sets for the regression function in nonparametric binary regression with an unknown design density. These confidence sets are adaptive in $L^2$ loss over a continuous class of Sobolev type spaces. Adaptation holds in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-04 Rajarshi Mukherjee , Subhabrata Sen

Predict a new response from a covariate is a challenging task in regression, which raises new question since the era of high-dimensional data. In this paper, we are interested in the inverse regression method from a theoretical viewpoint.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-10 Emilie Devijver , Emeline Perthame

Data reduction is a fundamental challenge of modern technology, where classical statistical methods are not applicable because of computational limitations. We consider multiple linear regression for an extraordinarily large number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-30 Torsten Glemser , Rainer Schwabe

We consider the problem of predicting values of a random process or field satisfying a linear model $y(x)=\theta^\top f(x) + \varepsilon(x)$, where errors $\varepsilon(x)$ are correlated. This is a common problem in kriging, where the case…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-13 Holger Dette , Andrey Pepelyshev , Anatoly Zhigljavsky

We consider the utilization of a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to inform the stochastic description of model input parameters. Our formulation is based on the recently developed consistent…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-04 Scott N. Walsh , Tim M. Wildey , John D. Jakeman

We consider the problem of parameter estimation from a generalized linear model with a random design matrix that is orthogonally invariant in law. Such a model allows the design have an arbitrary distribution of singular values and only…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Yihan Zhang , Hong Chang Ji , Ramji Venkataramanan , Marco Mondelli

The optimal selection of experimental conditions is essential to maximizing the value of data for inference and prediction, particularly in situations where experiments are time-consuming and expensive to conduct. We propose a general…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-12-04 Xun Huan , Youssef M. Marzouk

We study random design linear regression with no assumptions on the distribution of the covariates and with a heavy-tailed response variable. In this distribution-free regression setting, we show that boundedness of the conditional second…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-25 Jaouad Mourtada , Tomas Vaškevičius , Nikita Zhivotovskiy

Using mathematical models to assist in the interpretation of experiments is becoming increasingly important in research across applied mathematics, and in particular in biology and ecology. In this context, accurate parameter estimation is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-29 Jie Qi , Ruth E. Baker

Bayesian optimality criteria provide a robust design strategy to parameter misspecification. We develop an approximate design theory for Bayesian $D$-optimality for non-linear regression models with covariates subject to measurement errors.…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-16 Maria Konstantinou , Holger Dette

This paper considers the problem of constructing optimal discriminating experimental designs for competing regression models on the basis of the T-optimality criterion introduced by Atkinson and Fedorov [Biometrika 62 (1975) 57-70].…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-30 Holger Dette , Viatcheslav B. Melas , Petr Shpilev

We consider optimal designs for the Kiefer cirteria, which include the E-criterion as a particular case, and the G-criterion in random coefficients regression (RCR) models. We obtain general the Kiefer criteria for approximate designs and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-14 Maryna Prus

We introduce new variants of classical regression-based algorithms for optimal stopping problems based on computation of regression coefficients by Monte Carlo approximation of the corresponding $L^2$ inner products instead of the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-04-29 Christian Bayer , Martin Redmann , John Schoenmakers

Regression trees are one of the oldest forms of AI models, and their predictions can be made without a calculator, which makes them broadly useful, particularly for high-stakes applications. Within the large literature on regression trees,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Rui Zhang , Rui Xin , Margo Seltzer , Cynthia Rudin