Related papers: Minimum Probabilistic Finite State Learning Proble…
Runtime monitors assess whether a system is in an unsafe state based on a stream of observations. We study the problem where the system is subject to probabilistic uncertainty and described by a hidden Markov model. A stream of observations…
Finite state space hidden Markov models are flexible tools to model phenomena with complex time dependencies: any process distribution can be approximated by a hidden Markov model with enough hidden states.We consider the problem of…
Infinite Hidden Markov Models (iHMM's) are an attractive, nonparametric generalization of the classical Hidden Markov Model which can automatically infer the number of hidden states in the system. However, due to the infinite-dimensional…
In contrast to the advances in characterizing the sample complexity for solving Markov decision processes (MDPs), the optimal statistical complexity for solving constrained MDPs (CMDPs) remains unknown. We resolve this question by providing…
This paper formalizes a latent variable inference problem we call {\em supervised pattern discovery}, the goal of which is to find sets of observations that belong to a single ``pattern.'' We discuss two versions of the problem and prove…
In this paper, we analyze the finite sample complexity of stochastic system identification using modern tools from machine learning and statistics. An unknown discrete-time linear system evolves over time under Gaussian noise without…
Parametric Markov chains (pMC) are used to model probabilistic systems with unknown or partially known probabilities. Although (universal) pMC verification for reachability properties is known to be coETR-complete, there have been efforts…
Hidden Markov models have successfully been applied as models of discrete time series in many fields. Often, when applied in practice, the parameters of these models have to be estimated. The currently predominating identification methods,…
This work attempts to approximate a linear Gaussian system with a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM), which is found useful in solving sophisticated event-based state estimation problems. An indirect modeling approach is developed,…
We derive a finite-sample probabilistic bound on the parameter estimation error of a system identification algorithm for Linear Switched Systems. The algorithm estimates Markov parameters from a single trajectory and applies a variant of…
Parameter learning is a crucial task in the field of Statistical Relational Artificial Intelligence: given a probabilistic logic program and a set of observations in the form of interpretations, the goal is to learn the probabilities of the…
State space models have long played an important role in signal processing. The Gaussian case can be treated algorithmically using the famous Kalman filter. Similarly since the 1970s there has been extensive application of Hidden Markov…
State-space models (SSMs) are a highly expressive model class for learning patterns in time series data and for system identification. Deterministic versions of SSMs (e.g. LSTMs) proved extremely successful in modeling complex time series…
We show that one can approximate the least fixed point solution for a multivariate system of monotone probabilistic max(min) polynomial equations, referred to as maxPPSs (and minPPSs, respectively), in time polynomial in both the encoding…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic functions of finite Markov chains, or, put in other words, state space models with finite state space. In this paper, we examine subspace estimation methods for HMMs whose output lies a finite…
Optimization problems are ubiquitous in our societies and are present in almost every segment of the economy. Most of these optimization problems are NP-hard and computationally demanding, often requiring approximate solutions for…
The problem of reducing a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to one of smaller dimension that exactly reproduces the same marginals is tackled by using a system-theoretic approach. Realization theory tools are extended to HMMs by leveraging suitable…
The objective of this article is to study the asymptotic behavior of a new particle filtering approach in the context of hidden Markov models (HMMs). In particular, we develop an algorithm where the latent-state sequence is segmented into…
We consider the problem of performing inference with imprecise continuous-time hidden Markov chains, that is, imprecise continuous-time Markov chains that are augmented with random output variables whose distribution depends on the hidden…
A measurement strategy is developed for a new kind of hypothesis testing. It assigns, with minimum probability of error, the state of a quantum system to one or the other of two complementary subsets of a set of N given non-orthogonal…